Raphaël Glucksmann leads the October 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first round at 76% implied probability, driven by his national polling strength in the social-democratic space and endorsements from figures including former presidential nominee Anne Hidalgo. The two-round electronic vote, open to PS, Place Publique, and GRS members, occurs 9–10 October, with candidate declarations closing mid-September. Olivier Faure’s late entry as PS first secretary introduced competition, yet Glucksmann’s broader appeal against far-right contenders and support from party moderates sustain his position. Lower probabilities for Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and others reflect their narrower bases and limited recent momentum in the closed primary process.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRaphaël Glucksmann 83%
Olivier Faure 11%
Jérôme Guedj 7%
Emmanuel Maurel 1.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 10, 2026
Raphaël Glucksmann
83%
Olivier Faure
11%
Jérôme Guedj
7%
Emmanuel Maurel
2%
Ségolène Royal
2%
Philippe Brun
1%
Raphaël Glucksmann 83%
Olivier Faure 11%
Jérôme Guedj 7%
Emmanuel Maurel 1.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 10, 2026
Raphaël Glucksmann
$440 Wol.
83%
Olivier Faure
$165 Wol.
11%
Jérôme Guedj
$142 Wol.
7%
Emmanuel Maurel
$133 Wol.
2%
Ségolène Royal
$142 Wol.
2%
Philippe Brun
$87 Wol.
1%
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann leads the October 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first round at 76% implied probability, driven by his national polling strength in the social-democratic space and endorsements from figures including former presidential nominee Anne Hidalgo. The two-round electronic vote, open to PS, Place Publique, and GRS members, occurs 9–10 October, with candidate declarations closing mid-September. Olivier Faure’s late entry as PS first secretary introduced competition, yet Glucksmann’s broader appeal against far-right contenders and support from party moderates sustain his position. Lower probabilities for Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and others reflect their narrower bases and limited recent momentum in the closed primary process.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,110Data zakończenia
Oct 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann leads the October 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first round at 76% implied probability, driven by his national polling strength in the social-democratic space and endorsements from figures including former presidential nominee Anne Hidalgo. The two-round electronic vote, open to PS, Place Publique, and GRS members, occurs 9–10 October, with candidate declarations closing mid-September. Olivier Faure’s late entry as PS first secretary introduced competition, yet Glucksmann’s broader appeal against far-right contenders and support from party moderates sustain his position. Lower probabilities for Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and others reflect their narrower bases and limited recent momentum in the closed primary process.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Wolumen
$1,110Data zakończenia
Oct 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Raphaël Glucksmann leads the October 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first round at 76% implied probability, driven by his national polling strength in the social-democratic space and endorsements from figures including former presidential nominee Anne Hidalgo. The two-round electronic vote, open to PS, Place Publique, and GRS members, occurs 9–10 October, with candidate declarations closing mid-September. Olivier Faure’s late entry as PS first secretary introduced competition, yet Glucksmann’s broader appeal against far-right contenders and support from party moderates sustain his position. Lower probabilities for Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and others reflect their narrower bases and limited recent momentum in the closed primary process.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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