Trader consensus pricing "No" at 97% reflects the structural barriers embedded in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, which requires Vice President JD Vance and a majority of Trump-appointed Cabinet secretaries to declare incapacity before Congress could affirm removal by two-thirds majorities in both chambers. Republican majorities and alignment between the president, vice president, and executive branch have prevented any formal process from advancing despite periodic Democratic calls and public commentary on the president's age, public statements, and reported episodes of fatigue during 2026. Historical precedent shows the provision has never produced involuntary removal. Late developments such as a documented medical incapacity certified by administration physicians or an unprecedented bipartisan rupture within the Cabinet and Senate could still alter probabilities before 2027, though both remain remote under current conditions.