Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028

Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028 — Dyskusja

Frosen · 2025-07-11T19:11:35.945Z

Dyskusja o Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028. Traderzy dzielą się spostrzeżeniami i prognozami na Polymarket.

JD Vance 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13.3%

Jon Ossoff 11.8%

Marco Rubio 9.3%

$704,056,448 Wol.

Nov 6, 2028

Zarabiaj 3.25%

JD Vance

$16,234,591 Wol.

24%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$13,610,314 Wol.

13%

Jon Ossoff

$5,666,354 Wol.

12%

Marco Rubio

$12,286,347 Wol.

Gavin Newsom

$18,231,216 Wol.

Kamala Harris

$8,948,278 Wol.

Josh Shapiro

$7,533,435 Wol.

Pete Buttigieg

$8,208,966 Wol.

Ron DeSantis

$12,577,147 Wol.

Donald Trump

$10,148,520 Wol.

Mark Kelly

$682,208 Wol.

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,359,403 Wol.

Tucker Carlson

$14,225,381 Wol.

Andy Beshear

$19,168,843 Wol.

Ro Khanna

$10,780,910 Wol.

Greg Abbott

$35,352,317 Wol.

Wes Moore

$12,572,030 Wol.

Thomas Massie

$8,347,291 Wol.

Donald Trump Jr.

$13,724,521 Wol.

James Talarico

$7,127,767 Wol.

Jamie Dimon

$10,950,608 Wol.

Ivanka Trump

$8,162,936 Wol.

<1%

Gretchen Whitmer

$15,577,802 Wol.

<1%

JB Pritzker

$12,837,685 Wol.

<1%

Glenn Youngkin

$27,460,449 Wol.

<1%

Michelle Obama

$19,219,933 Wol.

<1%

Raphael Warnock

$612,115 Wol.

<1%

Elon Musk

$27,080,390 Wol.

<1%

Tom Cotton

$1,441,077 Wol.

<1%

Tulsi Gabbard

$35,349,322 Wol.

<1%

Adam Schiff

$932,894 Wol.

<1%

Elissa Slotkin

$494,210 Wol.

<1%

Vivek Ramaswamy

$37,917,675 Wol.

<1%

Eric Trump

$18,816,385 Wol.

<1%

Abigail Spanberger

$304,369 Wol.

<1%

Hakeem Jeffries

$259,722 Wol.

<1%

Candace Owens

$519,464 Wol.

<1%

Mike Johnson

$363,010 Wol.

<1%

Jalen Brunson

$2,710,375 Wol.

<1%

John N. Kennedy

$374,772 Wol.

<1%

Tim Walz

$44,724,367 Wol.

<1%

Tim Scott

$378,974 Wol.

<1%

Doug Burgum

$385,965 Wol.

<1%

LeBron James

$54,772,933 Wol.

<1%

Rick Scott

$489,482 Wol.

<1%

Stephen Smith

$33,456,925 Wol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$835,611 Wol.

<1%

Pete Hegseth

$10,336,825 Wol.

<1%

Nikki Haley

$30,055,821 Wol.

<1%

Kim Kardashian

$40,268,199 Wol.

<1%

Zohran Mamdani

$22,157,437 Wol.

<1%

Josh Stein

$1,022,878 Wol.

<1%

JD Vance 24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13.3%

Jon Ossoff 11.8%

Marco Rubio 9.3%

$704,056,448 Wol.

Nov 6, 2028

Zarabiaj 3.25%

JD Vance

$16,234,591 Wol.

24%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$13,610,314 Wol.

13%

Jon Ossoff

$5,666,354 Wol.

12%

Marco Rubio

$12,286,347 Wol.

Gavin Newsom

$18,231,216 Wol.

Kamala Harris

$8,948,278 Wol.

Josh Shapiro

$7,533,435 Wol.

Pete Buttigieg

$8,208,966 Wol.

Ron DeSantis

$12,577,147 Wol.

Donald Trump

$10,148,520 Wol.

Mark Kelly

$682,208 Wol.

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$8,359,403 Wol.

Tucker Carlson

$14,225,381 Wol.

Andy Beshear

$19,168,843 Wol.

Ro Khanna

$10,780,910 Wol.

Greg Abbott

$35,352,317 Wol.

Wes Moore

$12,572,030 Wol.

Thomas Massie

$8,347,291 Wol.

Donald Trump Jr.

$13,724,521 Wol.

James Talarico

$7,127,767 Wol.

Jamie Dimon

$10,950,608 Wol.

Ivanka Trump

$8,162,936 Wol.

<1%

Gretchen Whitmer

$15,577,802 Wol.

<1%

JB Pritzker

$12,837,685 Wol.

<1%

Glenn Youngkin

$27,460,449 Wol.

<1%

Michelle Obama

$19,219,933 Wol.

<1%

Raphael Warnock

$612,115 Wol.

<1%

Elon Musk

$27,080,390 Wol.

<1%

Tom Cotton

$1,441,077 Wol.

<1%

Tulsi Gabbard

$35,349,322 Wol.

<1%

Adam Schiff

$932,894 Wol.

<1%

Elissa Slotkin

$494,210 Wol.

<1%

Vivek Ramaswamy

$37,917,675 Wol.

<1%

Eric Trump

$18,816,385 Wol.

<1%

Abigail Spanberger

$304,369 Wol.

<1%

Hakeem Jeffries

$259,722 Wol.

<1%

Candace Owens

$519,464 Wol.

<1%

Mike Johnson

$363,010 Wol.

<1%

Jalen Brunson

$2,710,375 Wol.

<1%

John N. Kennedy

$374,772 Wol.

<1%

Tim Walz

$44,724,367 Wol.

<1%

Tim Scott

$378,974 Wol.

<1%

Doug Burgum

$385,965 Wol.

<1%

LeBron James

$54,772,933 Wol.

<1%

Rick Scott

$489,482 Wol.

<1%

Stephen Smith

$33,456,925 Wol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$835,611 Wol.

<1%

Pete Hegseth

$10,336,825 Wol.

<1%

Nikki Haley

$30,055,821 Wol.

<1%

Kim Kardashian

$40,268,199 Wol.

<1%

Zohran Mamdani

$22,157,437 Wol.

<1%

Josh Stein

$1,022,878 Wol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Rynek otwarty: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Wolumen

$704,056,448

Data zakończenia

Nov 7, 2028

Rynek otwarty

Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x2F5e3684c...

With the 2028 presidential field remaining fragmented, trader consensus places JD Vance at the head of Republican contenders while Democratic options such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff hold the next-highest implied probabilities. Key differentiators include Senate tenure and geographic reach for Ossoff, progressive national profile for Ocasio-Cortez, and executive-branch exposure for Vance and Marco Rubio. Factors that could consolidate support behind any single outcome include primary results, endorsements from party leaders, shifts in polling averages within battleground states, and formal nomination decisions at the conventions. The wide distribution across dozens of names underscores uncertainty more than two years before the general election.

Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano 10 wrz 2026, 00:30 UTC

Sep 4 2026

Jon Ossoff hosts virtual conference following new Senate ad launch

Jon Ossoff rises to 12%1%

Jon Ossoff held a virtual conference to promote his Senate campaign and counter attacks, reinforcing his political messaging and potentially boosting his market price.

Sep 3 2026

Jon Ossoff backs bipartisan bill to expand housing construction training in Georgia

Jon Ossoff jumps to 12%9%

Senator Jon Ossoff's support for bipartisan legislation to expand housing training programs in Georgia increased his profile and appeal ahead of his 2026 Senate re-election campaign, contributing to his market price increase.

Jul 1 2026

Zogby poll shows JD Vance leading Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom in 2028 matchups

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

A Zogby Analytics poll released in early July showed JD Vance leading Democratic contenders Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups. This poll reinforced Vance's position as a frontrunner, supporting his market price stability and slight increase.

Jun 26 2026

Pete Buttigieg falsely accused in child protective services report

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

An anonymous caller falsely reported that Pete Buttigieg's children were in danger, leading to their temporary removal and a police investigation. The report was quickly determined to be false, but the incident caused personal distress and negative publicity, reflected in a drop in Buttigieg's market price.

Jun 22 2026

JD Vance says Iran will allow UN nuclear inspectors after Swiss talks

JD Vance jumps to 21%6%

Vice President Vance announced that Iran had agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors back into the country after a “very, very good” round of talks in Switzerland. The breakthrough boosted Vance’s perceived competence on foreign policy and pushed his market price up from 15 % to 21 % by early July.

Jun 15 2026

Newsom races to sink California billionaire tax before June deadline

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%3%

Governor Newsom launched a last‑ditch campaign to sink a proposed California billionaire tax before the June 25 deadline. The move was viewed as a sign of his willingness to fight powerful interests, but the market saw his presidential odds slip from 18 % to 16 % on June 12 and down to 15 % by June 26.

Jun 2 2026

California primary election results advance Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, Newsom ineligible

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%3%

The California top-two primary election was held, with Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton advancing. Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom was ineligible for re-election due to term limits, which contributed to a slight decline in his market price from 17% to 14%.

May 23 2026

Rubio and Vance emerge as leading contenders in Republican 2028 succession race

Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%

Analysis highlighted the intensifying contest between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to succeed Donald Trump, with Vance maintaining a lead but Rubio gaining ground through diplomatic and policy roles. This dynamic was reflected in market price movements favoring Rubio and some volatility for Vance.

May 7 2026

Kamala Harris campaigns in Las Vegas, criticizing Trump over Iran war

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

Kamala Harris held a public event in Las Vegas where she criticized Donald Trump for the ongoing war in Iran, reinforcing her active political presence and positioning herself as a vocal critic of Trump-era policies. This likely boosted her market price by increasing her visibility and appeal to Democratic voters.

Apr 28 2026

Democrats express lukewarm enthusiasm for Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential bid

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Reports emerged that major Democratic donors and party leaders showed limited enthusiasm for backing Kamala Harris in 2028, reflecting skepticism about her appeal to swing voters. This news likely contributed to a modest increase in her market price as it highlighted her ongoing relevance in the race despite challenges.

Apr 25 2026

JD Vance leads US delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

JD Vance was announced to lead the US delegation to the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics, attending the opening ceremony alongside Marco Rubio. This high-profile diplomatic and public engagement increased market confidence in Vance's prominence and viability as a presidential candidate, boosting his price from 18% to 19%.

Apr 24 2026

White House insiders increasingly view Marco Rubio as serious 2028 contender

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Reports emerged that White House insiders see Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a strong potential candidate for the 2028 presidential election, praising his handling of foreign conflicts and political savvy. This positive coverage contributed to a price increase from 11% to 15% in early May.

Apr 23 2026

Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha expect fourth child

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Vance and his wife announced on social media that they are expecting a fourth child. The announcement generated a surge of positive coverage about the Vice President's family, pushing JD Vance’s odds up from 20 % to 28 % by early August 2025 and keeping the market above the 20 % floor for the rest of the analysis window.

Apr 23 2026

Trump privately questions JD Vance's viability, shifts favor toward Marco Rubio

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Reports emerged that President Donald Trump was doubting Vice President JD Vance's ability to lead the MAGA movement into 2028, comparing him unfavorably to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This caused a temporary dip in Vance's market price and a rise for Rubio as Trump’s influence is critical in Republican primaries.

Apr 23 2026

Marco Rubio gains visibility as Secretary of State amid Iran talks and White House presence

Marco Rubio rises to 11%2%

On April 23, 2026, Rubio was prominently featured with President Trump in the Oval Office and engaged in diplomatic efforts including Iran negotiations, raising his profile and market odds from 9% to 11% shortly after. His role as a key national security figure increased investor confidence in his candidacy.

Apr 23 2026

Trump promotes Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

President Donald Trump publicly suggested that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would make a strong presidential ticket in 2028, boosting market confidence in both candidates. This endorsement speculation caused price increases for Rubio and helped stabilize Vance's position.

Apr 11 2026

U.S. Vice President JD Vance meets Pakistani premier in Islamabad on Iran talks

JD Vance dips to 27%4%

Vice President JD Vance travelled to Islamabad for Iran‑related talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The diplomatic assignment was widely reported as a high‑stakes test for Vance’s foreign‑policy credentials, and the market price for Vance fell from 31 % on 2026‑01‑03 to 27 % on 2026‑01‑17, reflecting dampened expectations for his presidential bid.

Apr 10 2026

Kamala Harris signals potential 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly acknowledged she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, marking her clearest indication yet of a possible third campaign. This announcement increased market confidence in her candidacy, reflected in a price rise from 3% to 4% around this date.

Apr 10 2026

Kamala Harris publicly signals consideration of 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Former Vice President Kamala Harris stated at the National Action Network Convention that she is "thinking about" running for president in 2028, marking her clearest public indication yet. This announcement led to a modest increase in her market price as she emerged as a leading Democratic contender.

Feb 14 2026

Marco Rubio’s Munich speech boosts his foreign‑policy profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%

Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a high‑profile speech at the Munich Security Conference, positioning himself as a key foreign‑policy voice. The appearance coincided with a rise in his market price from 7 % on 2026‑02‑07 to 12 % on 2026‑03‑14, the highest level recorded in the analysis period.

Feb 6 2026

JD Vance and Marco Rubio join U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony

Marco Rubio rises to 9%2%

The White House announced that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend the opening ceremony of the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy. Rubio’s high‑visibility role boosted his market price from 7% to 9% by early January and helped sustain his rise through March.

Feb 3 2026

Gavin Newsom’s memoir hints at 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom jumps to 17%7%

Newsom publicly announced the release of his memoir “Young Man in a Hurry” and hinted at a possible 2028 presidential run. The announcement sparked a surge in his market price, which rose from 13 % on 2025‑07‑11 to a peak of 23 % on 2025‑09‑07 before settling at 17 % by the analysis end.

Jan 8 2026

Josh Shapiro launches re‑election bid, foreshadowing 2028 ambitions

Josh Shapiro drops to 2%5%

Shapiro’s launch of his 2026 re‑election campaign, emphasizing a fight against “chaos and toxicity,” coincided with a sharp decline in his market price from 7 % on July 11 to 2 % by April 13, as the market interpreted the move as a focus on the governorship rather than a 2028 bid.

Jan 3 2026

U.S. operation captures Venezuelan President Maduro, raising Secretary Rubio’s profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%6%

Rubio, now U.S. Secretary of State, led the successful operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The dramatic foreign‑policy win was covered by multiple outlets and drove Rubio’s market odds up from 9 % on Dec 20 2025 to 15 % on Jan 16 2026 before falling back to 12 % by late June.

Dec 21 2025

Poll shows Gavin Newsom and JD Vance as early frontrunners in 2028 race

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

A CNN poll identified Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom as early leaders in their parties' 2028 presidential fields, reinforcing Vance's GOP momentum and Newsom's Democratic prospects. This poll influenced market prices, with Vance around 28-30% and Newsom rising to about 18%.

Dec 20 2025

JD Vance heads up US‑Iran cease‑fire negotiations in Switzerland

JD Vance rises to 30%2%

Vice‑President Vance led the first direct talks with Iran in Switzerland, positioning himself as the face of a potential cease‑fire deal. The high‑profile diplomatic effort boosted his national visibility and led the market price for JD Vance to climb from 28 % on Dec 8 to 30 % on Dec 20.

Dec 14 2025

Kamala Harris expands 2026 book tour signaling 2028 campaign viability

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Harris announced an expanded book tour promoting her 2024 campaign memoir, including stops in key primary states with significant Black voter populations. This move was widely interpreted as laying groundwork for a 2028 presidential run, supporting her market price stability and slight gains.

Dec 10 2025

Opinion piece crowns Gavin Newsom as the leading 2028 Democratic hopeful

Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%

The PCC Courier editorial framed Newsom as the Democratic frontrunner for 2028, citing his social‑media strategy and speculation that he will run. This positive narrative coincides with the jump from 10 % to 13 % on Dec 10 2025 and continued upward pressure to a peak of 23 % in September, lifting his market price to 17 % by the window’s end.

Nov 17 2025

Ted Cruz challenges Tucker Carlson amid 2028 presidential speculation

Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%

Senator Ted Cruz publicly criticized Tucker Carlson's foreign policy views and rhetoric, positioning himself as a traditional Republican alternative for 2028. This feud contributed to a decline in Carlson's market price from 50% to near 1%, reflecting diminished confidence in his candidacy.

Nov 1 2025

California voters pass Proposition 50, bolstering Gov. Newsom’s presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom rises to 22%4%

California voters approved Proposition 50, a redistricting measure that would make the state’s congressional map more favorable to Democrats. The victory was widely reported as a boost to Newsom’s national profile and his 2028 presidential prospects, and the market price for Newsom rose from 18 % on Oct 28 2025 to 22 % on Nov 14 2025 before settling back to 19 % by Dec 1 2025.

Oct 26 2025

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%9%

Newsom said on CBS Sunday Morning he would decide on a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms. The announcement sparked a surge in his market price from 10 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 19 % on 2025‑08‑01, launching the upward trend that carried the odds to a peak of 16 % by early 2026.

Sep 18 2025

Poll shows Tucker Carlson as early front‑runner before backlash over Ukraine comments

Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%

Tucker Carlson was listed as a top‑draw candidate in a speculative “Who will run in 2028?” poll, peaking at 50 % on Sep 18 2025. Within three days the poll collapsed after his controversial statements about the war in Ukraine, dropping his price to 1 % on Sep 21 2025.

Aug 3 2025

Vice President JD Vance announces $1.3 billion California Medicaid deferral

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Vice President JD Vance announced a $1.3 billion deferral of Medicaid funds to California as part of the administration’s anti‑fraud task force. The high‑profile announcement boosted Vance’s national visibility and his standing among conservatives, lifting his market price from 19 % to 28 % within a week.

Jul 30 2025

Former Vice‑President Kamala Harris will not run for California governor in 2026

Kamala Harris dips to 4%2%

Multiple outlets (NYTimes, PBS, AP) reported that former Vice‑President Harris announced she would not run for California governor in 2026, removing her from a potential 2028 presidential path and pushing her market price down from 6 % (May 11 2026) to 4 % (Jul 4 2026).

Jul 18 2025

Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris reach peak market interest amid early 2026 speculation

Gavin Newsom surges to 50%40%

Both Newsom and Harris reached high market prices around mid-2025, reflecting speculation about their potential 2026 or 2028 runs. Newsom's peak was linked to his combative style and national profile, while Harris was still considered a potential candidate before she announced she would not run in 2026.

Jul 17 2025

Democrats begin early moves for 2028 presidential race

Democratic candidates including Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg started visiting early primary states and making strategic moves, signaling serious intentions for the 2028 presidential race. This early activity increased market interest and influenced price changes for these candidates.

Jul 15 2025

Gavin Newsom signs California redistricting bills, schedules special election

Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed legislation to redraw congressional districts and scheduled a special election for November 4, 2025, aiming to favor Democrats. This move was seen as a strategic political action enhancing Newsom's profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, contributing to his market price rise.

Jul 15 2025

Turning Point USA pledges early support for JD Vance in key primary states

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Turning Point USA announced it will mobilize staff and volunteers in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada to back Vice President JD Vance for president, following Erika Kirk’s endorsement. The endorsement signaled organized grassroots momentum, pushing Vance’s price from 19% to 28% by early August.

Jul 11 2025

Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidency and plans early state support

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president and announced plans to support him in key early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, boosting his market price from 19% to 28%. This endorsement signaled strong conservative grassroots backing for Vance.

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom campaigns in early 2028 presidential race with growing support

Gavin Newsom jumps to 16%6%

Gavin Newsom began gaining traction as a leading Democratic contender for the 2028 presidential election, with early polling showing rising support and increased national profile through media appearances and criticism of Republican policies. This contributed to a rise in his market price from 10% to 16%.

Jul 11 2025

Marco Rubio asserts non-recognition of Maduro regime in Venezuela

Marco Rubio jumps to 16%9%

On July 11, 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly declared that Nicolás Maduro is not the legitimate president of Venezuela, reinforcing the Trump administration's hardline stance. This statement bolstered Rubio's profile as a strong foreign policy figure, leading to a price increase in his market outcome from 7% to 16% in the following weeks.

Jul 11 2025

Jon Ossoff enters 2026 Senate race with $25 million cash on hand

Jon Ossoff jumps to 11%8%

Jon Ossoff announced a strong fundraising position with over $25 million cash on hand for his 2026 Senate re-election campaign in Georgia, signaling his political strength and increasing his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. This financial advantage likely contributed to the rise in his market price from 3% to 11%.

Wolumen

$704,056,448

Data zakończenia

Nov 7, 2028

Rynek otwarty

Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x2F5e3684c...

Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano 10 wrz 2026, 00:30 UTC

Sep 4 2026

Jon Ossoff hosts virtual conference following new Senate ad launch

Jon Ossoff rises to 12%1%

Jon Ossoff held a virtual conference to promote his Senate campaign and counter attacks, reinforcing his political messaging and potentially boosting his market price.

Sep 3 2026

Jon Ossoff backs bipartisan bill to expand housing construction training in Georgia

Jon Ossoff jumps to 12%9%

Jul 1 2026

Zogby poll shows JD Vance leading Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom in 2028 matchups

JD Vance jumps to 20%5%

Jun 26 2026

Pete Buttigieg falsely accused in child protective services report

Pete Buttigieg dips to 2%1%

Jun 22 2026

JD Vance says Iran will allow UN nuclear inspectors after Swiss talks

JD Vance jumps to 21%6%

Jun 15 2026

Newsom races to sink California billionaire tax before June deadline

Gavin Newsom dips to 15%3%

Jun 2 2026

California primary election results advance Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, Newsom ineligible

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%3%

May 23 2026

Rubio and Vance emerge as leading contenders in Republican 2028 succession race

Marco Rubio rises to 14%2%

May 7 2026

Kamala Harris campaigns in Las Vegas, criticizing Trump over Iran war

Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%

Apr 28 2026

Democrats express lukewarm enthusiasm for Kamala Harris's 2028 presidential bid

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Apr 25 2026

JD Vance leads US delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy

JD Vance rises to 19%1%

Apr 24 2026

White House insiders increasingly view Marco Rubio as serious 2028 contender

Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%

Apr 23 2026

Vice President JD Vance and wife Usha expect fourth child

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Apr 23 2026

Trump privately questions JD Vance's viability, shifts favor toward Marco Rubio

JD Vance dips to 18%1%

Apr 23 2026

Marco Rubio gains visibility as Secretary of State amid Iran talks and White House presence

Marco Rubio rises to 11%2%

Apr 23 2026

Trump promotes Vance-Rubio 2028 presidential ticket speculation

Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%

Apr 11 2026

U.S. Vice President JD Vance meets Pakistani premier in Islamabad on Iran talks

JD Vance dips to 27%4%

Apr 10 2026

Kamala Harris signals potential 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Apr 10 2026

Kamala Harris publicly signals consideration of 2028 presidential run

Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%

Feb 14 2026

Marco Rubio’s Munich speech boosts his foreign‑policy profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 12%5%

Feb 6 2026

JD Vance and Marco Rubio join U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony

Marco Rubio rises to 9%2%

Feb 3 2026

Gavin Newsom’s memoir hints at 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom jumps to 17%7%

Jan 8 2026

Josh Shapiro launches re‑election bid, foreshadowing 2028 ambitions

Josh Shapiro drops to 2%5%

Jan 3 2026

U.S. operation captures Venezuelan President Maduro, raising Secretary Rubio’s profile

Marco Rubio jumps to 15%6%

Dec 21 2025

Poll shows Gavin Newsom and JD Vance as early frontrunners in 2028 race

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Dec 20 2025

JD Vance heads up US‑Iran cease‑fire negotiations in Switzerland

JD Vance rises to 30%2%

Dec 14 2025

Kamala Harris expands 2026 book tour signaling 2028 campaign viability

Kamala Harris rises to 4%1%

Dec 10 2025

Opinion piece crowns Gavin Newsom as the leading 2028 Democratic hopeful

Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%

Nov 17 2025

Ted Cruz challenges Tucker Carlson amid 2028 presidential speculation

Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%

Nov 1 2025

California voters pass Proposition 50, bolstering Gov. Newsom’s presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom rises to 22%4%

Oct 26 2025

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom jumps to 19%9%

Sep 18 2025

Poll shows Tucker Carlson as early front‑runner before backlash over Ukraine comments

Tucker Carlson plunges to 3%47%

Aug 3 2025

Vice President JD Vance announces $1.3 billion California Medicaid deferral

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Jul 30 2025

Former Vice‑President Kamala Harris will not run for California governor in 2026

Kamala Harris dips to 4%2%

Jul 18 2025

Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris reach peak market interest amid early 2026 speculation

Gavin Newsom surges to 50%40%

Jul 17 2025

Democrats begin early moves for 2028 presidential race

Jul 15 2025

Gavin Newsom signs California redistricting bills, schedules special election

Gavin Newsom rises to 13%3%

Jul 15 2025

Turning Point USA pledges early support for JD Vance in key primary states

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Jul 11 2025

Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidency and plans early state support

JD Vance jumps to 28%9%

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom campaigns in early 2028 presidential race with growing support

Gavin Newsom jumps to 16%6%

Jul 11 2025

Marco Rubio asserts non-recognition of Maduro regime in Venezuela

Marco Rubio jumps to 16%9%

Jul 11 2025

Jon Ossoff enters 2026 Senate race with $25 million cash on hand

Jon Ossoff jumps to 11%8%

Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.

Często zadawane pytania

"Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 52+ możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "JD Vance" z 24%, za nim "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" z 13%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 24¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 24% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" wygenerował $704.1 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Jul 11, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028", przeglądaj 52+ dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" jest "JD Vance" z 24%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 24% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" z 13%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.

Tak. Nie musisz handlować, aby być na bieżąco. Ta strona służy jako tracker na żywo dla "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028". Prawdopodobieństwa wyników aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym z każdą nową transakcją. Możesz dodać tę stronę do zakładek i sprawdzić sekcję komentarzy, aby zobaczyć, co myślą inni traderzy. Możesz też użyć filtrów zakresu czasu na wykresie, aby zobaczyć, jak kursy zmieniały się w czasie. To darmowe, działające w czasie rzeczywistym okno na to, czego rynek oczekuje.

Kursy Polymarket ustalane są przez prawdziwych traderów stawiających prawdziwe pieniądze za swoimi przekonaniami, co zwykle prowadzi do trafnych prognoz. Z $704.1 million wolumenu na "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028", ceny te agregują zbiorową wiedzę i zaangażowanie tysięcy uczestników — często przewyższając sondaże, prognozy ekspertów i tradycyjne badania. Rynki prognoz jak Polymarket mają silną historię trafności, szczególnie gdy wydarzenia zbliżają się do rozstrzygnięcia. Na przykład, Polymarket ma miesięczny wynik trafności 94%. Najnowsze statystyki trafności prognoz Polymarket znajdziesz na stronie trafności na Polymarket.

Aby złożyć swoje pierwsze zlecenie na "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028", zarejestruj darmowe konto Polymarket i doładuj je kryptowalutą, kartą kredytową lub debetową albo przelewem bankowym. Po doładowaniu konta wróć na tę stronę, wybierz wynik, na który chcesz handlować, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli jesteś nowy w rynkach prognoz, kliknij link "Jak to działa" na górze dowolnej strony Polymarket, aby zobaczyć szybki przewodnik krok po kroku.

Na Polymarket cena każdego wyniku reprezentuje implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Cena 24¢ za "JD Vance" na rynku "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" oznacza, że traderzy zbiorowo wierzą, iż istnieje w przybliżeniu 24% szansy na to, że "JD Vance" będzie poprawnym wynikiem. Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" po 24¢ i wynik jest poprawny, otrzymasz $1.00 za udział — zysk 76¢ za udział. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, te udziały są warte $0.

Rynek "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" to prognoza długoterminowa z datą rozstrzygnięcia Nov 6, 2028 — to w przybliżeniu ponad 2 lat. Długoterminowe rynki na Polymarket często widzą znaczne zmiany kursów w miarę rozwoju wydarzeń, co czyni je przydatnymi do śledzenia ewolucji nastrojów. Możesz handlować w dowolnym momencie lub dodać tę stronę do zakładek.

Rynek "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" ma aktywną społeczność z 1,025 komentarzami, gdzie traderzy dzielą się swoimi analizami, debatują nad wynikami i omawiają najnowsze wydarzenia. Przewiń w dół do sekcji komentarzy, aby przeczytać, co myślą inni uczestnicy. Możesz też filtrować według "Najwięksi posiadacze", aby zobaczyć, na czym pozycjonują się największe portfele rynku, lub sprawdzić zakładkę "Aktywność" dla transmisji transakcji na żywo.

Polymarket to największy na świecie rynek prognoz, na którym możesz być na bieżąco i czerpać zyski ze swojej wiedzy o wydarzeniach w świecie rzeczywistym. Traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały w wynikach tematów od polityki i wyborów po kryptowaluty, finanse, sport, technologię i kulturę, w tym rynki takie jak "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028". Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym poparte finansowym zaangażowaniem, często dostarczając szybsze i trafniejsze sygnały niż sondaże, komentatorzy czy tradycyjne badania.

Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028

Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028

Zasady

Kontekst rynku

Zasady

Kontekst rynku

Komentarze (1,025)

Najwięksi posiadacze

Pozycje

Aktywność

Często zadawane pytania

Czym jest rynek prognoz "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028"?

Jaką aktywność handlową wygenerował "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" na Polymarket?

Jak handlować na "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028"?

Jakie są obecne kursy na "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028"?

Jak zostanie rozstrzygnięty "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028"?

Czy mogę śledzić "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" bez handlowania?

Dlaczego kursy Polymarket na "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028" są uważane za wiarygodne?

Jak zacząć handlować na "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028"?

Co oznacza cena 24¢ za "JD Vance"?

Kiedy zamknie się rynek "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028"?

Co mówią traderzy o "Zwycięzca wyborów prezydenckich 2028"?

Czym jest Polymarket?