Elevated inflation projections and a hawkish pivot under Chair Kevin Warsh have anchored trader consensus around "Other" at 78% for the June–September FOMC sequence, as persistent price pressures from energy and supply shocks have shifted the median dot-plot endpoint to 3.8% by year-end 2026. The Fed held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both the June and July meetings, with the latter featuring three dissents favoring a hike, while core PCE forecasts were revised sharply higher. This environment has compressed odds on Pause–Pause–Cut to just 0.4%, with Pause–Pause–Pause at 21% reflecting the baseline case of continued holds absent clear disinflation or labor-market deterioration ahead of the September 15–16 decision. Market-implied odds embed the risk of at least one 25-basis-point tightening within the window, consistent with futures pricing and the removal of prior easing signals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,453 Wol.
$864,453 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
21%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
78%
Other 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,453 Wol.
$864,453 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$332,706 Wol.
21%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$102,224 Wol.
<1%
Other
$373,647 Wol.
78%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation projections and a hawkish pivot under Chair Kevin Warsh have anchored trader consensus around "Other" at 78% for the June–September FOMC sequence, as persistent price pressures from energy and supply shocks have shifted the median dot-plot endpoint to 3.8% by year-end 2026. The Fed held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both the June and July meetings, with the latter featuring three dissents favoring a hike, while core PCE forecasts were revised sharply higher. This environment has compressed odds on Pause–Pause–Cut to just 0.4%, with Pause–Pause–Pause at 21% reflecting the baseline case of continued holds absent clear disinflation or labor-market deterioration ahead of the September 15–16 decision. Market-implied odds embed the risk of at least one 25-basis-point tightening within the window, consistent with futures pricing and the removal of prior easing signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$864,453Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation projections and a hawkish pivot under Chair Kevin Warsh have anchored trader consensus around "Other" at 78% for the June–September FOMC sequence, as persistent price pressures from energy and supply shocks have shifted the median dot-plot endpoint to 3.8% by year-end 2026. The Fed held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both the June and July meetings, with the latter featuring three dissents favoring a hike, while core PCE forecasts were revised sharply higher. This environment has compressed odds on Pause–Pause–Cut to just 0.4%, with Pause–Pause–Pause at 21% reflecting the baseline case of continued holds absent clear disinflation or labor-market deterioration ahead of the September 15–16 decision. Market-implied odds embed the risk of at least one 25-basis-point tightening within the window, consistent with futures pricing and the removal of prior easing signals.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$864,453Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation projections and a hawkish pivot under Chair Kevin Warsh have anchored trader consensus around "Other" at 78% for the June–September FOMC sequence, as persistent price pressures from energy and supply shocks have shifted the median dot-plot endpoint to 3.8% by year-end 2026. The Fed held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% in both the June and July meetings, with the latter featuring three dissents favoring a hike, while core PCE forecasts were revised sharply higher. This environment has compressed odds on Pause–Pause–Cut to just 0.4%, with Pause–Pause–Pause at 21% reflecting the baseline case of continued holds absent clear disinflation or labor-market deterioration ahead of the September 15–16 decision. Market-implied odds embed the risk of at least one 25-basis-point tightening within the window, consistent with futures pricing and the removal of prior easing signals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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