**Trader consensus centers on 825K-900K total votes in the November 3, 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate general election, with the 825K-975K range capturing over 80% of probability.** This positioning reflects a safe Republican contest featuring incumbent Tom Cotton against Democrat Hallie Shoffner in a state where recent midterms have produced roughly 900K ballots. Historical patterns from the 2022 Senate race (approximately 901K votes) and lower-engagement cycles inform expectations, as the non-competitive environment and absence of a presidential contest typically moderate participation among registered voters. Recent polling averages showing Cotton ahead by double digits and ongoing debate scheduling have not introduced catalysts for elevated turnout, keeping implied probabilities aligned with baseline midterm participation rates in Arkansas.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano825K-900K 50%
900K-975K 30%
975K-1.05M 18%
750K-825K 3.6%
<600K
1%
600K-675K
<1%
675K-750K
<1%
750K-825K
4%
825K-900K
50%
900K-975K
30%
975K-1.05M
18%
1.05M+
1%
825K-900K 50%
900K-975K 30%
975K-1.05M 18%
750K-825K 3.6%
<600K
1%
600K-675K
<1%
675K-750K
<1%
750K-825K
4%
825K-900K
50%
900K-975K
30%
975K-1.05M
18%
1.05M+
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 18, 2026, 10:07 AM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on 825K-900K total votes in the November 3, 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate general election, with the 825K-975K range capturing over 80% of probability.** This positioning reflects a safe Republican contest featuring incumbent Tom Cotton against Democrat Hallie Shoffner in a state where recent midterms have produced roughly 900K ballots. Historical patterns from the 2022 Senate race (approximately 901K votes) and lower-engagement cycles inform expectations, as the non-competitive environment and absence of a presidential contest typically moderate participation among registered voters. Recent polling averages showing Cotton ahead by double digits and ongoing debate scheduling have not introduced catalysts for elevated turnout, keeping implied probabilities aligned with baseline midterm participation rates in Arkansas.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
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