The exceptionally quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by a strengthening El Niño that has suppressed formation and intensification through peak months, underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds against a Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks projected below-normal activity with just 0–2 major hurricanes expected, a forecast borne out by only five named storms and zero hurricanes through mid-September. Historical data show Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur infrequently, averaging fewer than one per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Remaining windows in October–November offer limited opportunity for rapid intensification under prevailing shear and steering patterns. A late-season storm could still reach major status and track onshore if El Niño weakens faster than modeled or if local sea-surface temperatures spike, though such shifts remain low-probability events per current agency guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$142,105 Vol.
$142,105 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$142,105 Vol.
$142,105 Vol.
2026/12/31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The exceptionally quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by a strengthening El Niño that has suppressed formation and intensification through peak months, underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds against a Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks projected below-normal activity with just 0–2 major hurricanes expected, a forecast borne out by only five named storms and zero hurricanes through mid-September. Historical data show Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur infrequently, averaging fewer than one per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Remaining windows in October–November offer limited opportunity for rapid intensification under prevailing shear and steering patterns. A late-season storm could still reach major status and track onshore if El Niño weakens faster than modeled or if local sea-surface temperatures spike, though such shifts remain low-probability events per current agency guidance.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
音量
$142,105終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The exceptionally quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by a strengthening El Niño that has suppressed formation and intensification through peak months, underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds against a Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks projected below-normal activity with just 0–2 major hurricanes expected, a forecast borne out by only five named storms and zero hurricanes through mid-September. Historical data show Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur infrequently, averaging fewer than one per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Remaining windows in October–November offer limited opportunity for rapid intensification under prevailing shear and steering patterns. A late-season storm could still reach major status and track onshore if El Niño weakens faster than modeled or if local sea-surface temperatures spike, though such shifts remain low-probability events per current agency guidance.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
音量
$142,105終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The exceptionally quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by a strengthening El Niño that has suppressed formation and intensification through peak months, underpins the 96.5% market-implied odds against a Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks projected below-normal activity with just 0–2 major hurricanes expected, a forecast borne out by only five named storms and zero hurricanes through mid-September. Historical data show Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur infrequently, averaging fewer than one per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Remaining windows in October–November offer limited opportunity for rapid intensification under prevailing shear and steering patterns. A late-season storm could still reach major status and track onshore if El Niño weakens faster than modeled or if local sea-surface temperatures spike, though such shifts remain low-probability events per current agency guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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