A strong El Niño event has suppressed 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear and altered steering patterns, resulting in just six named storms—all tropical storms—with zero hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy near 5 through September 20, far below the 1991–2020 median. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts assign high probability to a below-normal season overall, with only a 24% chance of any major (Category 3–5) hurricane landfall on the continental U.S. coastline. This environment makes Category 4 formation and U.S. landfall before 2027 highly unlikely under current model consensus. Late-season development remains possible if shear relaxes, though recent two-week outlooks indicate continued quiet conditions through early October.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
8% 確率
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
8% 確率
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
2026/12/31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A strong El Niño event has suppressed 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear and altered steering patterns, resulting in just six named storms—all tropical storms—with zero hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy near 5 through September 20, far below the 1991–2020 median. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts assign high probability to a below-normal season overall, with only a 24% chance of any major (Category 3–5) hurricane landfall on the continental U.S. coastline. This environment makes Category 4 formation and U.S. landfall before 2027 highly unlikely under current model consensus. Late-season development remains possible if shear relaxes, though recent two-week outlooks indicate continued quiet conditions through early October.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
マーケット開始日： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
音量
$343,898終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A strong El Niño event has suppressed 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear and altered steering patterns, resulting in just six named storms—all tropical storms—with zero hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy near 5 through September 20, far below the 1991–2020 median. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts assign high probability to a below-normal season overall, with only a 24% chance of any major (Category 3–5) hurricane landfall on the continental U.S. coastline. This environment makes Category 4 formation and U.S. landfall before 2027 highly unlikely under current model consensus. Late-season development remains possible if shear relaxes, though recent two-week outlooks indicate continued quiet conditions through early October.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
音量
$343,898終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...A strong El Niño event has suppressed 2026 Atlantic activity through elevated vertical wind shear and altered steering patterns, resulting in just six named storms—all tropical storms—with zero hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy near 5 through September 20, far below the 1991–2020 median. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts assign high probability to a below-normal season overall, with only a 24% chance of any major (Category 3–5) hurricane landfall on the continental U.S. coastline. This environment makes Category 4 formation and U.S. landfall before 2027 highly unlikely under current model consensus. Late-season development remains possible if shear relaxes, though recent two-week outlooks indicate continued quiet conditions through early October.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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