**Trader consensus heavily favors no hurricane landfall in Hawaii before 2027, with the market pricing “No” at 83.5%.** This reflects the islands’ extremely low historical base rate—only two documented hurricane landfalls in the modern record (Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992 on Kauaʻi)—combined with persistent environmental barriers in the central Pacific. Strong trade winds, elevated vertical wind shear, and sea-surface temperatures that often drop below the ~26°C threshold needed to sustain intensity typically steer or weaken approaching systems before their centers cross land at hurricane strength (≥74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The 2026 central Pacific season has been above normal, driven by El Niño conditions that favor more tropical cyclone formation and higher accumulated cyclone energy. Storms such as major hurricanes Lala (August) and Lowell (late August–early September) produced significant impacts through heavy rain, high surf, and gusts while passing nearby or brushing western islands, temporarily elevating landfall odds. However, neither achieved a true hurricane landfall—their centers remained offshore or weakened beforehand—causing the implied probability of a 2026 landfall to fall back from peaks near 24% to the current ~16.5% range. With the season nearing its end and steering patterns plus shear continuing to limit direct hits, recent near-misses have reinforced rather than overturned the long-term climatological pattern. New forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ハリケーンは2027年までにハワイに上陸しますか？
ハリケーンは2027年までにハワイに上陸しますか？
はい
17% 確率
$41,357 Vol.
$41,357 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
17% 確率
$41,357 Vol.
$41,357 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.**Trader consensus heavily favors no hurricane landfall in Hawaii before 2027, with the market pricing “No” at 83.5%.** This reflects the islands’ extremely low historical base rate—only two documented hurricane landfalls in the modern record (Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992 on Kauaʻi)—combined with persistent environmental barriers in the central Pacific. Strong trade winds, elevated vertical wind shear, and sea-surface temperatures that often drop below the ~26°C threshold needed to sustain intensity typically steer or weaken approaching systems before their centers cross land at hurricane strength (≥74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
The 2026 central Pacific season has been above normal, driven by El Niño conditions that favor more tropical cyclone formation and higher accumulated cyclone energy. Storms such as major hurricanes Lala (August) and Lowell (late August–early September) produced significant impacts through heavy rain, high surf, and gusts while passing nearby or brushing western islands, temporarily elevating landfall odds. However, neither achieved a true hurricane landfall—their centers remained offshore or weakened beforehand—causing the implied probability of a 2026 landfall to fall back from peaks near 24% to the current ~16.5% range.
With the season nearing its end and steering patterns plus shear continuing to limit direct hits, recent near-misses have reinforced rather than overturned the long-term climatological pattern. New forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
音量
$41,357終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.**Trader consensus heavily favors no hurricane landfall in Hawaii before 2027, with the market pricing “No” at 83.5%.** This reflects the islands’ extremely low historical base rate—only two documented hurricane landfalls in the modern record (Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992 on Kauaʻi)—combined with persistent environmental barriers in the central Pacific. Strong trade winds, elevated vertical wind shear, and sea-surface temperatures that often drop below the ~26°C threshold needed to sustain intensity typically steer or weaken approaching systems before their centers cross land at hurricane strength (≥74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
The 2026 central Pacific season has been above normal, driven by El Niño conditions that favor more tropical cyclone formation and higher accumulated cyclone energy. Storms such as major hurricanes Lala (August) and Lowell (late August–early September) produced significant impacts through heavy rain, high surf, and gusts while passing nearby or brushing western islands, temporarily elevating landfall odds. However, neither achieved a true hurricane landfall—their centers remained offshore or weakened beforehand—causing the implied probability of a 2026 landfall to fall back from peaks near 24% to the current ~16.5% range.
With the season nearing its end and steering patterns plus shear continuing to limit direct hits, recent near-misses have reinforced rather than overturned the long-term climatological pattern. New forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, this market will resolve to "Yes" based on that correction.
音量
$41,357終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 11:28 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors no hurricane landfall in Hawaii before 2027, with the market pricing “No” at 83.5%.** This reflects the islands’ extremely low historical base rate—only two documented hurricane landfalls in the modern record (Dot in 1959 and Iniki in 1992 on Kauaʻi)—combined with persistent environmental barriers in the central Pacific. Strong trade winds, elevated vertical wind shear, and sea-surface temperatures that often drop below the ~26°C threshold needed to sustain intensity typically steer or weaken approaching systems before their centers cross land at hurricane strength (≥74 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The 2026 central Pacific season has been above normal, driven by El Niño conditions that favor more tropical cyclone formation and higher accumulated cyclone energy. Storms such as major hurricanes Lala (August) and Lowell (late August–early September) produced significant impacts through heavy rain, high surf, and gusts while passing nearby or brushing western islands, temporarily elevating landfall odds. However, neither achieved a true hurricane landfall—their centers remained offshore or weakened beforehand—causing the implied probability of a 2026 landfall to fall back from peaks near 24% to the current ~16.5% range. With the season nearing its end and steering patterns plus shear continuing to limit direct hits, recent near-misses have reinforced rather than overturned the long-term climatological pattern. New forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問