Official confirmation from Météo-France in early September 2026 established summer 2026 as France's hottest on record, with a national average temperature of 24°C—nearly a full degree above the 2003 benchmark of 23.1°C. Multiple intense heatwaves spanning 53 days, record highs exceeding 40°C across wide areas, and extreme drought conditions drove the outcome, aligning with broader European trends. Traders assigned 99.8% implied probability to "Yes" based on this verified data and historical patterns of accelerating warming. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited to minor final data revisions or definitional disputes over the exact meteorological summer window, though such adjustments appear improbable given the scale of the anomaly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年夏はフランス史上最も暑い夏になるでしょうか？
2026年夏はフランス史上最も暑い夏になるでしょうか？
はい
>99% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
>99% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.Official confirmation from Météo-France in early September 2026 established summer 2026 as France's hottest on record, with a national average temperature of 24°C—nearly a full degree above the 2003 benchmark of 23.1°C. Multiple intense heatwaves spanning 53 days, record highs exceeding 40°C across wide areas, and extreme drought conditions drove the outcome, aligning with broader European trends. Traders assigned 99.8% implied probability to "Yes" based on this verified data and historical patterns of accelerating warming. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited to minor final data revisions or definitional disputes over the exact meteorological summer window, though such adjustments appear improbable given the scale of the anomaly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
音量
$1,715終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.Official confirmation from Météo-France in early September 2026 established summer 2026 as France's hottest on record, with a national average temperature of 24°C—nearly a full degree above the 2003 benchmark of 23.1°C. Multiple intense heatwaves spanning 53 days, record highs exceeding 40°C across wide areas, and extreme drought conditions drove the outcome, aligning with broader European trends. Traders assigned 99.8% implied probability to "Yes" based on this verified data and historical patterns of accelerating warming. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited to minor final data revisions or definitional disputes over the exact meteorological summer window, though such adjustments appear improbable given the scale of the anomaly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
音量
$1,715終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ETOfficial confirmation from Météo-France in early September 2026 established summer 2026 as France's hottest on record, with a national average temperature of 24°C—nearly a full degree above the 2003 benchmark of 23.1°C. Multiple intense heatwaves spanning 53 days, record highs exceeding 40°C across wide areas, and extreme drought conditions drove the outcome, aligning with broader European trends. Traders assigned 99.8% implied probability to "Yes" based on this verified data and historical patterns of accelerating warming. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited to minor final data revisions or definitional disputes over the exact meteorological summer window, though such adjustments appear improbable given the scale of the anomaly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問