Early September 2026 shows closely matched market-implied odds across tornado count bins, reflecting substantial uncertainty in the transitional fall pattern. Historical September averages range from 66 to 74 tornadoes, with high year-to-year variability driven by residual warm-season instability, wind shear from mid-latitude troughs, and tornadoes spawned by landfalling tropical systems along the Gulf and Southeast coasts. An emerging El Niño phase may suppress overall activity by altering jet stream positions and reducing favorable environments compared to La Niña years, while current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risks through mid-month. Key variables include the number and tracks of Atlantic hurricanes, cold front passages, and low-level moisture availability, with new model runs and any tropical developments likely to shift trader consensus before month-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月の米国の竜巻
2026年9月の米国の竜巻
125個以上 50%
25〜49 49%
50～74 49%
75～124 49%
新規
新規
2026/10/14
25未満
3%
25〜49
49%
50～74
49%
75～124
49%
125個以上
50%
125個以上 50%
25〜49 49%
50～74 49%
75～124 49%
新規
新規
2026/10/14
25未満
$10 Vol.
3%
25〜49
$0 Vol.
49%
50～74
$0 Vol.
49%
75～124
$0 Vol.
49%
125個以上
$25 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early September 2026 shows closely matched market-implied odds across tornado count bins, reflecting substantial uncertainty in the transitional fall pattern. Historical September averages range from 66 to 74 tornadoes, with high year-to-year variability driven by residual warm-season instability, wind shear from mid-latitude troughs, and tornadoes spawned by landfalling tropical systems along the Gulf and Southeast coasts. An emerging El Niño phase may suppress overall activity by altering jet stream positions and reducing favorable environments compared to La Niña years, while current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risks through mid-month. Key variables include the number and tracks of Atlantic hurricanes, cold front passages, and low-level moisture availability, with new model runs and any tropical developments likely to shift trader consensus before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
音量
$35終了日
2026/10/15マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early September 2026 shows closely matched market-implied odds across tornado count bins, reflecting substantial uncertainty in the transitional fall pattern. Historical September averages range from 66 to 74 tornadoes, with high year-to-year variability driven by residual warm-season instability, wind shear from mid-latitude troughs, and tornadoes spawned by landfalling tropical systems along the Gulf and Southeast coasts. An emerging El Niño phase may suppress overall activity by altering jet stream positions and reducing favorable environments compared to La Niña years, while current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risks through mid-month. Key variables include the number and tracks of Atlantic hurricanes, cold front passages, and low-level moisture availability, with new model runs and any tropical developments likely to shift trader consensus before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$35終了日
2026/10/15マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Early September 2026 shows closely matched market-implied odds across tornado count bins, reflecting substantial uncertainty in the transitional fall pattern. Historical September averages range from 66 to 74 tornadoes, with high year-to-year variability driven by residual warm-season instability, wind shear from mid-latitude troughs, and tornadoes spawned by landfalling tropical systems along the Gulf and Southeast coasts. An emerging El Niño phase may suppress overall activity by altering jet stream positions and reducing favorable environments compared to La Niña years, while current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risks through mid-month. Key variables include the number and tracks of Atlantic hurricanes, cold front passages, and low-level moisture availability, with new model runs and any tropical developments likely to shift trader consensus before month-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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