Recent vacancies have produced by-elections in Makerfield (June) and Clacton (August), both resolved after writs moved in the Commons by party MPs or the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery. The next confirmed contest is the 8 October by-election in Keir Starmer’s former seat of Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by his post-leadership resignation; the writ for that poll is expected imminently. Trader attention now centers on whether additional seats open before year-end through further resignations, health-related vacancies, or procedural moves by sitting MPs, alongside the timing of any new writs during the current parliamentary session. Historical patterns show by-elections often cluster after leadership changes or when MPs seek other offices, while the absence of major scheduled votes until late 2026 limits near-term triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/10/31
10月31日
15%
12月31日
39%
$124 Vol.
10月31日
$52 Vol.
15%
12月31日
$72 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent vacancies have produced by-elections in Makerfield (June) and Clacton (August), both resolved after writs moved in the Commons by party MPs or the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery. The next confirmed contest is the 8 October by-election in Keir Starmer’s former seat of Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by his post-leadership resignation; the writ for that poll is expected imminently. Trader attention now centers on whether additional seats open before year-end through further resignations, health-related vacancies, or procedural moves by sitting MPs, alongside the timing of any new writs during the current parliamentary session. Historical patterns show by-elections often cluster after leadership changes or when MPs seek other offices, while the absence of major scheduled votes until late 2026 limits near-term triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$124終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent vacancies have produced by-elections in Makerfield (June) and Clacton (August), both resolved after writs moved in the Commons by party MPs or the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery. The next confirmed contest is the 8 October by-election in Keir Starmer’s former seat of Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by his post-leadership resignation; the writ for that poll is expected imminently. Trader attention now centers on whether additional seats open before year-end through further resignations, health-related vacancies, or procedural moves by sitting MPs, alongside the timing of any new writs during the current parliamentary session. Historical patterns show by-elections often cluster after leadership changes or when MPs seek other offices, while the absence of major scheduled votes until late 2026 limits near-term triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$124終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent vacancies have produced by-elections in Makerfield (June) and Clacton (August), both resolved after writs moved in the Commons by party MPs or the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery. The next confirmed contest is the 8 October by-election in Keir Starmer’s former seat of Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by his post-leadership resignation; the writ for that poll is expected imminently. Trader attention now centers on whether additional seats open before year-end through further resignations, health-related vacancies, or procedural moves by sitting MPs, alongside the timing of any new writs during the current parliamentary session. Historical patterns show by-elections often cluster after leadership changes or when MPs seek other offices, while the absence of major scheduled votes until late 2026 limits near-term triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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