Internal factional divisions within Iran's leadership, intensified by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment, have fueled hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" against moderates including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. These claims center on sidelining revolutionary institutions and negotiating with the United States without full supreme leader oversight. Recent September 2026 escalations, including unauthorized strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz attributed to rogue hardline elements like Hossein Taeb, have undermined potential ceasefires and prompted renewed exchanges of fire. Security forces have retained cohesion amid these pressures and prior strikes, with no widely reported coordinated military effort to seize power qualifying under market criteria. Trader consensus reflects this resilience and the distinction between political rhetoric and an executed coup attempt.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$2,134,685 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
8%
$2,134,685 Vol.
12月31日
$93,459 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal factional divisions within Iran's leadership, intensified by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment, have fueled hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" against moderates including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. These claims center on sidelining revolutionary institutions and negotiating with the United States without full supreme leader oversight. Recent September 2026 escalations, including unauthorized strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz attributed to rogue hardline elements like Hossein Taeb, have undermined potential ceasefires and prompted renewed exchanges of fire. Security forces have retained cohesion amid these pressures and prior strikes, with no widely reported coordinated military effort to seize power qualifying under market criteria. Trader consensus reflects this resilience and the distinction between political rhetoric and an executed coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
音量
$2,134,685終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal factional divisions within Iran's leadership, intensified by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment, have fueled hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" against moderates including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. These claims center on sidelining revolutionary institutions and negotiating with the United States without full supreme leader oversight. Recent September 2026 escalations, including unauthorized strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz attributed to rogue hardline elements like Hossein Taeb, have undermined potential ceasefires and prompted renewed exchanges of fire. Security forces have retained cohesion amid these pressures and prior strikes, with no widely reported coordinated military effort to seize power qualifying under market criteria. Trader consensus reflects this resilience and the distinction between political rhetoric and an executed coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,134,685終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Internal factional divisions within Iran's leadership, intensified by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment, have fueled hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" against moderates including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. These claims center on sidelining revolutionary institutions and negotiating with the United States without full supreme leader oversight. Recent September 2026 escalations, including unauthorized strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz attributed to rogue hardline elements like Hossein Taeb, have undermined potential ceasefires and prompted renewed exchanges of fire. Security forces have retained cohesion amid these pressures and prior strikes, with no widely reported coordinated military effort to seize power qualifying under market criteria. Trader consensus reflects this resilience and the distinction between political rhetoric and an executed coup attempt.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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