Russia’s political system has shown continuity through the September 2026 State Duma elections, where United Russia secured a strong majority amid tightly controlled voting and exclusion of opposition parties. Security services have expanded internal monitoring and protective measures around President Putin following earlier elite tensions and the 2023 Wagner events, limiting scope for organized challenges. Reports of elite dissatisfaction over the Ukraine conflict and economic pressures exist, yet these have not translated into coordinated action. Trader consensus on a low probability of a 2026 coup attempt reflects the absence of verifiable triggers such as military defections, public elite fractures, or institutional breakdowns in the year to date. Potential shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health developments or major battlefield reversals that fracture regime cohesion.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5% 確率
$132,539 Vol.
$132,539 Vol.
2026/12/31
5% 確率
$132,539 Vol.
$132,539 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s political system has shown continuity through the September 2026 State Duma elections, where United Russia secured a strong majority amid tightly controlled voting and exclusion of opposition parties. Security services have expanded internal monitoring and protective measures around President Putin following earlier elite tensions and the 2023 Wagner events, limiting scope for organized challenges. Reports of elite dissatisfaction over the Ukraine conflict and economic pressures exist, yet these have not translated into coordinated action. Trader consensus on a low probability of a 2026 coup attempt reflects the absence of verifiable triggers such as military defections, public elite fractures, or institutional breakdowns in the year to date. Potential shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health developments or major battlefield reversals that fracture regime cohesion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
音量
$132,539終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s political system has shown continuity through the September 2026 State Duma elections, where United Russia secured a strong majority amid tightly controlled voting and exclusion of opposition parties. Security services have expanded internal monitoring and protective measures around President Putin following earlier elite tensions and the 2023 Wagner events, limiting scope for organized challenges. Reports of elite dissatisfaction over the Ukraine conflict and economic pressures exist, yet these have not translated into coordinated action. Trader consensus on a low probability of a 2026 coup attempt reflects the absence of verifiable triggers such as military defections, public elite fractures, or institutional breakdowns in the year to date. Potential shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health developments or major battlefield reversals that fracture regime cohesion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$132,539終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Russia’s political system has shown continuity through the September 2026 State Duma elections, where United Russia secured a strong majority amid tightly controlled voting and exclusion of opposition parties. Security services have expanded internal monitoring and protective measures around President Putin following earlier elite tensions and the 2023 Wagner events, limiting scope for organized challenges. Reports of elite dissatisfaction over the Ukraine conflict and economic pressures exist, yet these have not translated into coordinated action. Trader consensus on a low probability of a 2026 coup attempt reflects the absence of verifiable triggers such as military defections, public elite fractures, or institutional breakdowns in the year to date. Potential shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health developments or major battlefield reversals that fracture regime cohesion.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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