Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have included repeated airstrikes on Hengam Island targeting naval, drone, and air defense infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz, alongside similar actions on Qeshm and other nearby sites. Iranian officials report displacement and damage to civilian facilities but maintain that armed forces retain full governmental and military authority over the island. Recent statements from IRGC commanders emphasize combat readiness and control of southern islands and sea lanes, with no verified reports of occupation or transfer of sovereignty. Trader pricing around 2% for loss of control by late September reflects these sustained Iranian defensive postures and the absence of ground operations capable of altering primary authority. Further diplomatic channels or escalation patterns could influence near-term developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$208,426 Vol.
2026/09/30
9月30日
1%
$208,426 Vol.
9月30日
$2,586 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have included repeated airstrikes on Hengam Island targeting naval, drone, and air defense infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz, alongside similar actions on Qeshm and other nearby sites. Iranian officials report displacement and damage to civilian facilities but maintain that armed forces retain full governmental and military authority over the island. Recent statements from IRGC commanders emphasize combat readiness and control of southern islands and sea lanes, with no verified reports of occupation or transfer of sovereignty. Trader pricing around 2% for loss of control by late September reflects these sustained Iranian defensive postures and the absence of ground operations capable of altering primary authority. Further diplomatic channels or escalation patterns could influence near-term developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$208,426終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have included repeated airstrikes on Hengam Island targeting naval, drone, and air defense infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz, alongside similar actions on Qeshm and other nearby sites. Iranian officials report displacement and damage to civilian facilities but maintain that armed forces retain full governmental and military authority over the island. Recent statements from IRGC commanders emphasize combat readiness and control of southern islands and sea lanes, with no verified reports of occupation or transfer of sovereignty. Trader pricing around 2% for loss of control by late September reflects these sustained Iranian defensive postures and the absence of ground operations capable of altering primary authority. Further diplomatic channels or escalation patterns could influence near-term developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$208,426終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have included repeated airstrikes on Hengam Island targeting naval, drone, and air defense infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz, alongside similar actions on Qeshm and other nearby sites. Iranian officials report displacement and damage to civilian facilities but maintain that armed forces retain full governmental and military authority over the island. Recent statements from IRGC commanders emphasize combat readiness and control of southern islands and sea lanes, with no verified reports of occupation or transfer of sovereignty. Trader pricing around 2% for loss of control by late September reflects these sustained Iranian defensive postures and the absence of ground operations capable of altering primary authority. Further diplomatic channels or escalation patterns could influence near-term developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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