Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the Florida U.S. Senate special election as the Republican incumbent appointed in 2025 to complete Marco Rubio’s term. Her position stems from consistent polling advantages of roughly five to seven points in the final weeks, strong fundraising and cash reserves exceeding her opponent’s, endorsements from President Trump and Governor DeSantis, and Florida’s Republican voter registration edge. Angie Nixon secured the Democratic nomination in August but faces headwinds in a state where Republicans have won recent Senate contests by double digits. With the November 3 election only days away, scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unusually high Democratic turnout, polling errors in battleground areas, or last-minute developments affecting voter sentiment.