Lula maintains a consistent lead in recent first-round polling for Brazil’s October 4 presidential vote, typically in the high 30s to low 40s percent range, ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in the mid-30s, with the remainder split among lower-polling right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. This positioning reflects the incumbent’s broad base and the opposition’s ongoing fragmentation, which prevents any single challenger from mounting a stronger challenge. Trader consensus prices align with these trends, assigning Lula the highest implied probability while discounting others given the narrow path for an outright first-round majority. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any late shifts in voter consolidation on the right ahead of the potential October 25 runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ルラ 70%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 32%
ロナウド・カイアド <1%
ゼマ <1%
$168,725 Vol.
$168,725 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルラ
70%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
32%
ロナウド・カイアド
<1%
ゼマ
<1%
レナン・サントス
<1%
パブロ・マルサル
<1%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
<1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
<1%
クラリアナ・バラオ
<1%
ヘルツ・ディアス
<1%
サマラ
<1%
獣医ウィルソン・グラッシ
<1%
エジミルソン・コスタ
<1%
ルラ 70%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 32%
ロナウド・カイアド <1%
ゼマ <1%
$168,725 Vol.
$168,725 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルラ
$80,200 Vol.
70%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$69,418 Vol.
32%
ロナウド・カイアド
$4,126 Vol.
<1%
ゼマ
$546 Vol.
<1%
レナン・サントス
$4,462 Vol.
<1%
パブロ・マルサル
$1,189 Vol.
<1%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
$6,851 Vol.
<1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
$477 Vol.
<1%
クラリアナ・バラオ
$288 Vol.
<1%
ヘルツ・ディアス
$296 Vol.
<1%
サマラ
$296 Vol.
<1%
獣医ウィルソン・グラッシ
$316 Vol.
<1%
エジミルソン・コスタ
$259 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a consistent lead in recent first-round polling for Brazil’s October 4 presidential vote, typically in the high 30s to low 40s percent range, ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in the mid-30s, with the remainder split among lower-polling right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. This positioning reflects the incumbent’s broad base and the opposition’s ongoing fragmentation, which prevents any single challenger from mounting a stronger challenge. Trader consensus prices align with these trends, assigning Lula the highest implied probability while discounting others given the narrow path for an outright first-round majority. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any late shifts in voter consolidation on the right ahead of the potential October 25 runoff.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
音量
$168,725終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a consistent lead in recent first-round polling for Brazil’s October 4 presidential vote, typically in the high 30s to low 40s percent range, ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in the mid-30s, with the remainder split among lower-polling right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. This positioning reflects the incumbent’s broad base and the opposition’s ongoing fragmentation, which prevents any single challenger from mounting a stronger challenge. Trader consensus prices align with these trends, assigning Lula the highest implied probability while discounting others given the narrow path for an outright first-round majority. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any late shifts in voter consolidation on the right ahead of the potential October 25 runoff.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$168,725終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETLula maintains a consistent lead in recent first-round polling for Brazil’s October 4 presidential vote, typically in the high 30s to low 40s percent range, ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in the mid-30s, with the remainder split among lower-polling right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. This positioning reflects the incumbent’s broad base and the opposition’s ongoing fragmentation, which prevents any single challenger from mounting a stronger challenge. Trader consensus prices align with these trends, assigning Lula the highest implied probability while discounting others given the narrow path for an outright first-round majority. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any late shifts in voter consolidation on the right ahead of the potential October 25 runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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