Greg Stanton holds a commanding lead in the AZ-04 race due to his status as a six-term incumbent in a district with a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+4, combined with overwhelming fundraising superiority and a decisive July 2026 primary victory over progressive challenger Kai Newkirk. The Phoenix-area seat covering Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler portions has shown consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and nonpartisan ratings classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Jasser, the unopposed Republican nominee and a physician with prior political involvement, faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and campaign resources. Late-cycle developments such as candidate forums and endorsements have not altered the trajectory. A major national partisan shift, unforeseen scandal, or significant turnout surge could narrow the gap, though such factors have not materialized in recent polling or fundraising reports.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$33,718 Vol.
$33,718 Vol.
2026/11/02
グレッグ・スタントン（民主党）
95%
ズディ・ジャッサー（共和党）
6%
$33,718 Vol.
$33,718 Vol.
2026/11/02
グレッグ・スタントン（民主党）
$25,677 Vol.
95%
ズディ・ジャッサー（共和党）
$8,041 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Stanton holds a commanding lead in the AZ-04 race due to his status as a six-term incumbent in a district with a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+4, combined with overwhelming fundraising superiority and a decisive July 2026 primary victory over progressive challenger Kai Newkirk. The Phoenix-area seat covering Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler portions has shown consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and nonpartisan ratings classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Jasser, the unopposed Republican nominee and a physician with prior political involvement, faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and campaign resources. Late-cycle developments such as candidate forums and endorsements have not altered the trajectory. A major national partisan shift, unforeseen scandal, or significant turnout surge could narrow the gap, though such factors have not materialized in recent polling or fundraising reports.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$33,718終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Stanton holds a commanding lead in the AZ-04 race due to his status as a six-term incumbent in a district with a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+4, combined with overwhelming fundraising superiority and a decisive July 2026 primary victory over progressive challenger Kai Newkirk. The Phoenix-area seat covering Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler portions has shown consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and nonpartisan ratings classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Jasser, the unopposed Republican nominee and a physician with prior political involvement, faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and campaign resources. Late-cycle developments such as candidate forums and endorsements have not altered the trajectory. A major national partisan shift, unforeseen scandal, or significant turnout surge could narrow the gap, though such factors have not materialized in recent polling or fundraising reports.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$33,718終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Greg Stanton holds a commanding lead in the AZ-04 race due to his status as a six-term incumbent in a district with a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+4, combined with overwhelming fundraising superiority and a decisive July 2026 primary victory over progressive challenger Kai Newkirk. The Phoenix-area seat covering Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler portions has shown consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and nonpartisan ratings classify it as Solid or Safe Democratic. Jasser, the unopposed Republican nominee and a physician with prior political involvement, faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and campaign resources. Late-cycle developments such as candidate forums and endorsements have not altered the trajectory. A major national partisan shift, unforeseen scandal, or significant turnout surge could narrow the gap, though such factors have not materialized in recent polling or fundraising reports.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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