Bipartisan congressional opposition and explicit signals from the Trump administration have anchored trader expectations against a pardon or commutation for Ghislaine Maxwell by December 31, 2026. In July 2026 the Senate unanimously adopted a resolution urging no clemency, citing her 2021 federal conviction for sex trafficking minors connected to Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche testified in May that the Justice Department would not recommend any relief, while a federal judge in August rejected Maxwell’s habeas petition seeking release. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered or been formally approached about the matter and would consult the DOJ if asked. With Maxwell’s appeals exhausted and no pardon process underway, these institutional and political barriers have produced the current 95 percent implied probability for no action before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
5% probabilità
$759,313 Vol.
$759,313 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Guadagna il 3.25%
Sì
5% probabilità
$759,313 Vol.
$759,313 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Guadagna il 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan congressional opposition and explicit signals from the Trump administration have anchored trader expectations against a pardon or commutation for Ghislaine Maxwell by December 31, 2026. In July 2026 the Senate unanimously adopted a resolution urging no clemency, citing her 2021 federal conviction for sex trafficking minors connected to Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche testified in May that the Justice Department would not recommend any relief, while a federal judge in August rejected Maxwell’s habeas petition seeking release. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered or been formally approached about the matter and would consult the DOJ if asked. With Maxwell’s appeals exhausted and no pardon process underway, these institutional and political barriers have produced the current 95 percent implied probability for no action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
Volume
$759,313Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETRisolutore
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan congressional opposition and explicit signals from the Trump administration have anchored trader expectations against a pardon or commutation for Ghislaine Maxwell by December 31, 2026. In July 2026 the Senate unanimously adopted a resolution urging no clemency, citing her 2021 federal conviction for sex trafficking minors connected to Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche testified in May that the Justice Department would not recommend any relief, while a federal judge in August rejected Maxwell’s habeas petition seeking release. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered or been formally approached about the matter and would consult the DOJ if asked. With Maxwell’s appeals exhausted and no pardon process underway, these institutional and political barriers have produced the current 95 percent implied probability for no action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$759,313Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETRisolutore
0x157Ce2d67...Bipartisan congressional opposition and explicit signals from the Trump administration have anchored trader expectations against a pardon or commutation for Ghislaine Maxwell by December 31, 2026. In July 2026 the Senate unanimously adopted a resolution urging no clemency, citing her 2021 federal conviction for sex trafficking minors connected to Jeffrey Epstein. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche testified in May that the Justice Department would not recommend any relief, while a federal judge in August rejected Maxwell’s habeas petition seeking release. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not considered or been formally approached about the matter and would consult the DOJ if asked. With Maxwell’s appeals exhausted and no pardon process underway, these institutional and political barriers have produced the current 95 percent implied probability for no action before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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