US-Colombia diplomatic and security ties remain stable with no reported troop deployments, joint exercises signaling escalation, or official statements from the White House or Pentagon indicating planned military action in 2026. Trader consensus at 97.7% for no invasion reflects the lack of active bilateral crises, ongoing cooperation on counternarcotics and migration, and historical patterns where the United States has avoided direct invasions of major South American partners absent acute threats to national security. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden regime instability in Colombia, verified cross-border threats prompting congressional authorization, or abrupt policy reversals following elections or leadership changes in either country.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
2% probabilità
$149,530 Vol.
$149,530 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
2% probabilità
$149,530 Vol.
$149,530 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Colombia diplomatic and security ties remain stable with no reported troop deployments, joint exercises signaling escalation, or official statements from the White House or Pentagon indicating planned military action in 2026. Trader consensus at 97.7% for no invasion reflects the lack of active bilateral crises, ongoing cooperation on counternarcotics and migration, and historical patterns where the United States has avoided direct invasions of major South American partners absent acute threats to national security. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden regime instability in Colombia, verified cross-border threats prompting congressional authorization, or abrupt policy reversals following elections or leadership changes in either country.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$149,530Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Colombia diplomatic and security ties remain stable with no reported troop deployments, joint exercises signaling escalation, or official statements from the White House or Pentagon indicating planned military action in 2026. Trader consensus at 97.7% for no invasion reflects the lack of active bilateral crises, ongoing cooperation on counternarcotics and migration, and historical patterns where the United States has avoided direct invasions of major South American partners absent acute threats to national security. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden regime instability in Colombia, verified cross-border threats prompting congressional authorization, or abrupt policy reversals following elections or leadership changes in either country.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$149,530Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...US-Colombia diplomatic and security ties remain stable with no reported troop deployments, joint exercises signaling escalation, or official statements from the White House or Pentagon indicating planned military action in 2026. Trader consensus at 97.7% for no invasion reflects the lack of active bilateral crises, ongoing cooperation on counternarcotics and migration, and historical patterns where the United States has avoided direct invasions of major South American partners absent acute threats to national security. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden regime instability in Colombia, verified cross-border threats prompting congressional authorization, or abrupt policy reversals following elections or leadership changes in either country.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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