Traders assign a 98.7 percent probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026 due to sustained bilateral security cooperation on counternarcotics, the absence of large-scale troop deployments or formal authorization for ground operations, and Mexico’s explicit rejection of any foreign military presence on its territory. Ongoing USMCA trade negotiations, cartel designations as foreign terrorist organizations, and limited actions such as maritime interdictions have not escalated into broader conflict. Mexican officials continue to emphasize sovereignty and joint efforts without subordination. Even with rhetorical pressure from U.S. officials, structural barriers including economic interdependence, domestic political costs, and lack of congressional or allied support make full-scale invasion highly improbable before year-end. Unforeseen triggers such as a major cross-border incident or abrupt policy reversal remain the primary variables that could still shift the outlook.