The high implied probability for no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects ongoing but limited U.S. Southern Command activities centered on counternarcotics. These include maritime interdictions of suspected drug vessels, precision strikes on go-fast boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, and recent transfers of MQ-9 Reaper drones to support intelligence and targeted operations in partnership with governments in Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, and Peru. The January 2026 operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro established a precedent for direct action against specific threats, yet subsequent developments emphasize joint training exercises, equipment transfers, and security cooperation rather than unilateral ground invasions or occupation. No public statements from U.S. officials or observable troop deployments signal plans for broader territorial intervention by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
7% probabilità
$277,066 Vol.
$277,066 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
7% probabilità
$277,066 Vol.
$277,066 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The high implied probability for no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects ongoing but limited U.S. Southern Command activities centered on counternarcotics. These include maritime interdictions of suspected drug vessels, precision strikes on go-fast boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, and recent transfers of MQ-9 Reaper drones to support intelligence and targeted operations in partnership with governments in Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, and Peru. The January 2026 operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro established a precedent for direct action against specific threats, yet subsequent developments emphasize joint training exercises, equipment transfers, and security cooperation rather than unilateral ground invasions or occupation. No public statements from U.S. officials or observable troop deployments signal plans for broader territorial intervention by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercato aperto: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$277,066Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The high implied probability for no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects ongoing but limited U.S. Southern Command activities centered on counternarcotics. These include maritime interdictions of suspected drug vessels, precision strikes on go-fast boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, and recent transfers of MQ-9 Reaper drones to support intelligence and targeted operations in partnership with governments in Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, and Peru. The January 2026 operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro established a precedent for direct action against specific threats, yet subsequent developments emphasize joint training exercises, equipment transfers, and security cooperation rather than unilateral ground invasions or occupation. No public statements from U.S. officials or observable troop deployments signal plans for broader territorial intervention by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$277,066Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability for no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects ongoing but limited U.S. Southern Command activities centered on counternarcotics. These include maritime interdictions of suspected drug vessels, precision strikes on go-fast boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, and recent transfers of MQ-9 Reaper drones to support intelligence and targeted operations in partnership with governments in Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, and Peru. The January 2026 operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro established a precedent for direct action against specific threats, yet subsequent developments emphasize joint training exercises, equipment transfers, and security cooperation rather than unilateral ground invasions or occupation. No public statements from U.S. officials or observable troop deployments signal plans for broader territorial intervention by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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