Sustained Chinese coast guard patrols and record vessel sightings around Taiwan, including east of the island, have intensified gray-zone coercion and jurisdictional assertions without establishing an enforced maritime or aerial blockade of commercial traffic through the end of 2026. Beijing has calibrated these operations below the threshold of sustained interdiction, consistent with incremental pressure tactics that avoid triggering broad international sanctions or direct U.S. involvement. Taiwan’s tabletop exercises simulating supply-line disruptions and its reduced air incursion counts reflect adaptation to this pattern rather than imminent escalation. Diplomatic channels, including potential U.S.-China summits, and mutual economic costs further anchor the 96% trader-implied probability against a full blockade. Late-year incidents at sea or shifts in deterrence signals remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before year-end.