NATO's eastern flank has seen repeated drone incursions tied to Russia's war in Ukraine, with electronic warfare often redirecting unmanned aircraft into Baltic and Black Sea airspace. Italian Eurofighters operating under the Baltic Air Policing mission shot down a suspected Russian Geran-2 drone in Lithuanian airspace on September 15, 2026—the first confirmed intercept over Lithuania—after it crossed from Belarus and carried explosives. Similar NATO intercepts occurred earlier in 2026 over Latvia in June and August. These incidents, alongside ongoing Russian strikes near alliance borders, have prompted enhanced patrols, ground-based defenses, and statements from NATO leaders emphasizing readiness to defend every inch of territory. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates reflects this pattern of spillover risks and operational responses by alliance forces.