**Trader consensus on a low probability of a US-Cuba military clash in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s sustained emphasis on economic sanctions, secondary measures targeting military-linked entities, and an oil blockade that has triggered Cuban blackouts and shortages rather than direct kinetic action.** Pentagon planning for options including air assaults and leadership targeting occurred earlier in the year alongside CIA Director engagement in Havana, yet other priorities such as renewed Iran tensions have constrained resources and attention. Recent Cuban statements affirm willingness for equal-footing dialogue on bilateral issues while rejecting external pressure, and US officials have kept diplomatic channels open alongside sanctions. With no verified military incidents reported through September and ongoing preference for coercive diplomacy over intervention, markets price a clash as unlikely absent major escalation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoScontro militare USA-Cuba nel 2026?
Scontro militare USA-Cuba nel 2026?
15% probabilità
$250,255 Vol.
$250,255 Vol.
31 dic 2026
15% probabilità
$250,255 Vol.
$250,255 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on a low probability of a US-Cuba military clash in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s sustained emphasis on economic sanctions, secondary measures targeting military-linked entities, and an oil blockade that has triggered Cuban blackouts and shortages rather than direct kinetic action.**
Pentagon planning for options including air assaults and leadership targeting occurred earlier in the year alongside CIA Director engagement in Havana, yet other priorities such as renewed Iran tensions have constrained resources and attention. Recent Cuban statements affirm willingness for equal-footing dialogue on bilateral issues while rejecting external pressure, and US officials have kept diplomatic channels open alongside sanctions. With no verified military incidents reported through September and ongoing preference for coercive diplomacy over intervention, markets price a clash as unlikely absent major escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$250,255Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus on a low probability of a US-Cuba military clash in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s sustained emphasis on economic sanctions, secondary measures targeting military-linked entities, and an oil blockade that has triggered Cuban blackouts and shortages rather than direct kinetic action.**
Pentagon planning for options including air assaults and leadership targeting occurred earlier in the year alongside CIA Director engagement in Havana, yet other priorities such as renewed Iran tensions have constrained resources and attention. Recent Cuban statements affirm willingness for equal-footing dialogue on bilateral issues while rejecting external pressure, and US officials have kept diplomatic channels open alongside sanctions. With no verified military incidents reported through September and ongoing preference for coercive diplomacy over intervention, markets price a clash as unlikely absent major escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$250,255Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on a low probability of a US-Cuba military clash in 2026 reflects the Trump administration’s sustained emphasis on economic sanctions, secondary measures targeting military-linked entities, and an oil blockade that has triggered Cuban blackouts and shortages rather than direct kinetic action.** Pentagon planning for options including air assaults and leadership targeting occurred earlier in the year alongside CIA Director engagement in Havana, yet other priorities such as renewed Iran tensions have constrained resources and attention. Recent Cuban statements affirm willingness for equal-footing dialogue on bilateral issues while rejecting external pressure, and US officials have kept diplomatic channels open alongside sanctions. With no verified military incidents reported through September and ongoing preference for coercive diplomacy over intervention, markets price a clash as unlikely absent major escalation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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