Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in the NJ-03 race due to the district's Democratic lean, centered on Burlington County with portions of Mercer and Monmouth, where he secured 53.2% in 2024. Traders reflect this through strong consensus pricing, reinforced by Conaway's unopposed Democratic primary, ongoing service on the Armed Services and Veterans' Affairs committees, and recent bipartisan legislation addressing Medicare prior authorizations. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and limited recent polling movement. Late developments such as national economic shifts, turnout changes, or unforeseen candidate issues could still narrow the gap before November 3, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNJ-03 House Election Winner
NJ-03 House Election Winner
$29,309 Vol.
$29,309 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Herb Conaway (D)
95%
Michael McGuire (R)
6%
$29,309 Vol.
$29,309 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Herb Conaway (D)
$13,546 Vol.
95%
Michael McGuire (R)
$15,763 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in the NJ-03 race due to the district's Democratic lean, centered on Burlington County with portions of Mercer and Monmouth, where he secured 53.2% in 2024. Traders reflect this through strong consensus pricing, reinforced by Conaway's unopposed Democratic primary, ongoing service on the Armed Services and Veterans' Affairs committees, and recent bipartisan legislation addressing Medicare prior authorizations. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and limited recent polling movement. Late developments such as national economic shifts, turnout changes, or unforeseen candidate issues could still narrow the gap before November 3, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$29,309Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in the NJ-03 race due to the district's Democratic lean, centered on Burlington County with portions of Mercer and Monmouth, where he secured 53.2% in 2024. Traders reflect this through strong consensus pricing, reinforced by Conaway's unopposed Democratic primary, ongoing service on the Armed Services and Veterans' Affairs committees, and recent bipartisan legislation addressing Medicare prior authorizations. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and limited recent polling movement. Late developments such as national economic shifts, turnout changes, or unforeseen candidate issues could still narrow the gap before November 3, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,309Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in the NJ-03 race due to the district's Democratic lean, centered on Burlington County with portions of Mercer and Monmouth, where he secured 53.2% in 2024. Traders reflect this through strong consensus pricing, reinforced by Conaway's unopposed Democratic primary, ongoing service on the Armed Services and Veterans' Affairs committees, and recent bipartisan legislation addressing Medicare prior authorizations. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and attorney who prevailed in a June primary, faces structural headwinds including lower name recognition and limited recent polling movement. Late developments such as national economic shifts, turnout changes, or unforeseen candidate issues could still narrow the gap before November 3, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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