Strong containment measures and limited international spread underpin the 97.7% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. The Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, declared a public health emergency of international concern in May, has produced over 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths across multiple provinces by mid-September, marking the country’s largest recorded event. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize low global risk, with only isolated exported cases in Uganda and France and no sustained community transmission outside the region. Recent declines in transmission in Ituri province contrast with surges elsewhere, yet response scaling, contact tracing, and historical patterns of Ebola’s limited airborne spread sustain trader consensus. Key variables that could shift odds include accelerated geographic expansion or changes in viral transmissibility before year-end surveillance updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
3% probabilità
$764,285 Vol.
$764,285 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3% probabilità
$764,285 Vol.
$764,285 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment measures and limited international spread underpin the 97.7% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. The Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, declared a public health emergency of international concern in May, has produced over 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths across multiple provinces by mid-September, marking the country’s largest recorded event. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize low global risk, with only isolated exported cases in Uganda and France and no sustained community transmission outside the region. Recent declines in transmission in Ituri province contrast with surges elsewhere, yet response scaling, contact tracing, and historical patterns of Ebola’s limited airborne spread sustain trader consensus. Key variables that could shift odds include accelerated geographic expansion or changes in viral transmissibility before year-end surveillance updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$764,285Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment measures and limited international spread underpin the 97.7% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. The Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, declared a public health emergency of international concern in May, has produced over 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths across multiple provinces by mid-September, marking the country’s largest recorded event. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize low global risk, with only isolated exported cases in Uganda and France and no sustained community transmission outside the region. Recent declines in transmission in Ituri province contrast with surges elsewhere, yet response scaling, contact tracing, and historical patterns of Ebola’s limited airborne spread sustain trader consensus. Key variables that could shift odds include accelerated geographic expansion or changes in viral transmissibility before year-end surveillance updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$764,285Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Strong containment measures and limited international spread underpin the 97.7% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. The Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, declared a public health emergency of international concern in May, has produced over 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths across multiple provinces by mid-September, marking the country’s largest recorded event. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize low global risk, with only isolated exported cases in Uganda and France and no sustained community transmission outside the region. Recent declines in transmission in Ituri province contrast with surges elsewhere, yet response scaling, contact tracing, and historical patterns of Ebola’s limited airborne spread sustain trader consensus. Key variables that could shift odds include accelerated geographic expansion or changes in viral transmissibility before year-end surveillance updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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