Internal factional tensions within Iran's leadership have fueled speculation around potential power shifts following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the appointment of his son Mojtaba as successor. Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" by sidelining the new supreme leader—who has remained largely absent from public view—elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing a U.S. truce, and diminishing parliament's role. These claims intensified around July 2026 during funeral ceremonies and ceasefire talks, with warnings of "velvet coup" maneuvers and threats to officials. Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei later highlighted risks of coups or infiltration amid ongoing conflict and economic strain. Trader focus centers on whether these divisions could escalate to an overt military or institutional challenge before any resolution of the broader U.S.-Iran confrontation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTentativo di colpo di stato in Iran da parte
Tentativo di colpo di stato in Iran da parte
$2,132,493 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
9%
$2,132,493 Vol.
31 dicembre
$91,268 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal factional tensions within Iran's leadership have fueled speculation around potential power shifts following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the appointment of his son Mojtaba as successor. Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" by sidelining the new supreme leader—who has remained largely absent from public view—elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing a U.S. truce, and diminishing parliament's role. These claims intensified around July 2026 during funeral ceremonies and ceasefire talks, with warnings of "velvet coup" maneuvers and threats to officials. Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei later highlighted risks of coups or infiltration amid ongoing conflict and economic strain. Trader focus centers on whether these divisions could escalate to an overt military or institutional challenge before any resolution of the broader U.S.-Iran confrontation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,132,493Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal factional tensions within Iran's leadership have fueled speculation around potential power shifts following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the appointment of his son Mojtaba as successor. Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" by sidelining the new supreme leader—who has remained largely absent from public view—elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing a U.S. truce, and diminishing parliament's role. These claims intensified around July 2026 during funeral ceremonies and ceasefire talks, with warnings of "velvet coup" maneuvers and threats to officials. Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei later highlighted risks of coups or infiltration amid ongoing conflict and economic strain. Trader focus centers on whether these divisions could escalate to an overt military or institutional challenge before any resolution of the broader U.S.-Iran confrontation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,132,493Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Internal factional tensions within Iran's leadership have fueled speculation around potential power shifts following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the appointment of his son Mojtaba as successor. Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" by sidelining the new supreme leader—who has remained largely absent from public view—elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing a U.S. truce, and diminishing parliament's role. These claims intensified around July 2026 during funeral ceremonies and ceasefire talks, with warnings of "velvet coup" maneuvers and threats to officials. Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei later highlighted risks of coups or infiltration amid ongoing conflict and economic strain. Trader focus centers on whether these divisions could escalate to an overt military or institutional challenge before any resolution of the broader U.S.-Iran confrontation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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