Internal tensions within Ukraine’s security apparatus, including the September 2026 shootout in Kyiv between units of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) and the Security Service (SBU) over an alleged Russian-linked arrest, have highlighted elite frictions without producing coordinated efforts to seize state institutions. Broader strains from 2025–2026 protests over defense leadership changes, anti-corruption investigations reaching presidential associates, and public calls for elections under martial law have fueled speculation about divisions, yet no military or security factions have mounted verifiable overthrow attempts meeting the market’s criteria for an executed coup. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to such an event by year-end, reflecting wartime consolidation of authority and the distinction between foiled plots or protests and organized challenges to government control. No scheduled votes, summits, or leadership transitions appear positioned to alter these dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$169,817 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
6%
$169,817 Vol.
31 dicembre
$151,981 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal tensions within Ukraine’s security apparatus, including the September 2026 shootout in Kyiv between units of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) and the Security Service (SBU) over an alleged Russian-linked arrest, have highlighted elite frictions without producing coordinated efforts to seize state institutions. Broader strains from 2025–2026 protests over defense leadership changes, anti-corruption investigations reaching presidential associates, and public calls for elections under martial law have fueled speculation about divisions, yet no military or security factions have mounted verifiable overthrow attempts meeting the market’s criteria for an executed coup. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to such an event by year-end, reflecting wartime consolidation of authority and the distinction between foiled plots or protests and organized challenges to government control. No scheduled votes, summits, or leadership transitions appear positioned to alter these dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$169,817Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal tensions within Ukraine’s security apparatus, including the September 2026 shootout in Kyiv between units of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) and the Security Service (SBU) over an alleged Russian-linked arrest, have highlighted elite frictions without producing coordinated efforts to seize state institutions. Broader strains from 2025–2026 protests over defense leadership changes, anti-corruption investigations reaching presidential associates, and public calls for elections under martial law have fueled speculation about divisions, yet no military or security factions have mounted verifiable overthrow attempts meeting the market’s criteria for an executed coup. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to such an event by year-end, reflecting wartime consolidation of authority and the distinction between foiled plots or protests and organized challenges to government control. No scheduled votes, summits, or leadership transitions appear positioned to alter these dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$169,817Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Internal tensions within Ukraine’s security apparatus, including the September 2026 shootout in Kyiv between units of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) and the Security Service (SBU) over an alleged Russian-linked arrest, have highlighted elite frictions without producing coordinated efforts to seize state institutions. Broader strains from 2025–2026 protests over defense leadership changes, anti-corruption investigations reaching presidential associates, and public calls for elections under martial law have fueled speculation about divisions, yet no military or security factions have mounted verifiable overthrow attempts meeting the market’s criteria for an executed coup. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to such an event by year-end, reflecting wartime consolidation of authority and the distinction between foiled plots or protests and organized challenges to government control. No scheduled votes, summits, or leadership transitions appear positioned to alter these dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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