Xi Jinping has consolidated authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers and Central Military Commission members since 2022, including high-profile investigations into figures such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026, which removed potential rivals and reinforced loyalty requirements. These actions, combined with the absence of verified military unrest or coordinated challenges, underpin trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before the end of 2026. The opaque CCP system and focus on institutional continuity ahead of the 2027 party congress further support stability expectations. Residual uncertainty stems from possible elite fractures triggered by economic pressures or health-related leadership transitions in the narrow remaining window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
4% probabilità
$155,402 Vol.
$155,402 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$155,402 Vol.
$155,402 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has consolidated authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers and Central Military Commission members since 2022, including high-profile investigations into figures such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026, which removed potential rivals and reinforced loyalty requirements. These actions, combined with the absence of verified military unrest or coordinated challenges, underpin trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before the end of 2026. The opaque CCP system and focus on institutional continuity ahead of the 2027 party congress further support stability expectations. Residual uncertainty stems from possible elite fractures triggered by economic pressures or health-related leadership transitions in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$155,402Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has consolidated authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers and Central Military Commission members since 2022, including high-profile investigations into figures such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026, which removed potential rivals and reinforced loyalty requirements. These actions, combined with the absence of verified military unrest or coordinated challenges, underpin trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before the end of 2026. The opaque CCP system and focus on institutional continuity ahead of the 2027 party congress further support stability expectations. Residual uncertainty stems from possible elite fractures triggered by economic pressures or health-related leadership transitions in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$155,402Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping has consolidated authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers and Central Military Commission members since 2022, including high-profile investigations into figures such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026, which removed potential rivals and reinforced loyalty requirements. These actions, combined with the absence of verified military unrest or coordinated challenges, underpin trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before the end of 2026. The opaque CCP system and focus on institutional continuity ahead of the 2027 party congress further support stability expectations. Residual uncertainty stems from possible elite fractures triggered by economic pressures or health-related leadership transitions in the narrow remaining window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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