Putin’s regime has maintained firm control over Russia’s security apparatus and military command through expanded surveillance, treason prosecutions, and loyalty mechanisms since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Heightened FSB activity, including arrests of officials and industry figures, along with reduced public appearances by the president, has reinforced internal discipline amid war-related strains such as Ukrainian drone strikes, fuel shortages, and declining approval ratings reported by state pollsters. No organized faction has demonstrated the capacity or willingness to launch a verifiable coup attempt in 2026, consistent with historical patterns of elite caution under consolidated authoritarian rule. Traders price the market at 94.5% for “No” because these structural barriers and demonstrated resilience outweigh earlier intelligence speculation about elite tensions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato6% probabilità
$131,207 Vol.
$131,207 Vol.
31 dic 2026
6% probabilità
$131,207 Vol.
$131,207 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s regime has maintained firm control over Russia’s security apparatus and military command through expanded surveillance, treason prosecutions, and loyalty mechanisms since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Heightened FSB activity, including arrests of officials and industry figures, along with reduced public appearances by the president, has reinforced internal discipline amid war-related strains such as Ukrainian drone strikes, fuel shortages, and declining approval ratings reported by state pollsters. No organized faction has demonstrated the capacity or willingness to launch a verifiable coup attempt in 2026, consistent with historical patterns of elite caution under consolidated authoritarian rule. Traders price the market at 94.5% for “No” because these structural barriers and demonstrated resilience outweigh earlier intelligence speculation about elite tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$131,207Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin’s regime has maintained firm control over Russia’s security apparatus and military command through expanded surveillance, treason prosecutions, and loyalty mechanisms since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Heightened FSB activity, including arrests of officials and industry figures, along with reduced public appearances by the president, has reinforced internal discipline amid war-related strains such as Ukrainian drone strikes, fuel shortages, and declining approval ratings reported by state pollsters. No organized faction has demonstrated the capacity or willingness to launch a verifiable coup attempt in 2026, consistent with historical patterns of elite caution under consolidated authoritarian rule. Traders price the market at 94.5% for “No” because these structural barriers and demonstrated resilience outweigh earlier intelligence speculation about elite tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$131,207Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Putin’s regime has maintained firm control over Russia’s security apparatus and military command through expanded surveillance, treason prosecutions, and loyalty mechanisms since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Heightened FSB activity, including arrests of officials and industry figures, along with reduced public appearances by the president, has reinforced internal discipline amid war-related strains such as Ukrainian drone strikes, fuel shortages, and declining approval ratings reported by state pollsters. No organized faction has demonstrated the capacity or willingness to launch a verifiable coup attempt in 2026, consistent with historical patterns of elite caution under consolidated authoritarian rule. Traders price the market at 94.5% for “No” because these structural barriers and demonstrated resilience outweigh earlier intelligence speculation about elite tensions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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