Incumbent Republican Marlin Stutzman holds a commanding position in the IN-03 House race due to the district's R+16 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including his 65 percent share in 2024. Stutzman secured a strong primary win in May 2026 with 68 percent of the vote, while Democratic nominee Kelly Thompson advanced unopposed but trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the northeast Indiana seat, centered on Fort Wayne, as Safe or Solid Republican. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the Republican reflects these structural advantages in a low-turnout midterm environment, though outcomes could shift with a major scandal, health issue, or broad national swing before the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIN-03 House Election Winner
IN-03 House Election Winner
$24,237 Vol.
$24,237 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Marlin Stutzman (R)
95%
Kelly Thompson (D)
5%
$24,237 Vol.
$24,237 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Marlin Stutzman (R)
$4,661 Vol.
95%
Kelly Thompson (D)
$19,576 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Marlin Stutzman holds a commanding position in the IN-03 House race due to the district's R+16 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including his 65 percent share in 2024. Stutzman secured a strong primary win in May 2026 with 68 percent of the vote, while Democratic nominee Kelly Thompson advanced unopposed but trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the northeast Indiana seat, centered on Fort Wayne, as Safe or Solid Republican. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the Republican reflects these structural advantages in a low-turnout midterm environment, though outcomes could shift with a major scandal, health issue, or broad national swing before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$24,237Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Marlin Stutzman holds a commanding position in the IN-03 House race due to the district's R+16 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including his 65 percent share in 2024. Stutzman secured a strong primary win in May 2026 with 68 percent of the vote, while Democratic nominee Kelly Thompson advanced unopposed but trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the northeast Indiana seat, centered on Fort Wayne, as Safe or Solid Republican. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the Republican reflects these structural advantages in a low-turnout midterm environment, though outcomes could shift with a major scandal, health issue, or broad national swing before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,237Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Marlin Stutzman holds a commanding position in the IN-03 House race due to the district's R+16 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including his 65 percent share in 2024. Stutzman secured a strong primary win in May 2026 with 68 percent of the vote, while Democratic nominee Kelly Thompson advanced unopposed but trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the northeast Indiana seat, centered on Fort Wayne, as Safe or Solid Republican. Trader consensus around 95 percent for the Republican reflects these structural advantages in a low-turnout midterm environment, though outcomes could shift with a major scandal, health issue, or broad national swing before the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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