The solidly Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th Congressional District, centered in southwest Chicago and surrounding suburbs, anchors trader consensus around Patty Garcia at 96%. As the unopposed Democratic nominee and former chief of staff to retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García, she benefits from established party infrastructure, substantial fundraising exceeding $350,000, and unified support following the incumbent's late 2025 withdrawal. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo and independent Chris Getty face structural barriers, including minimal reported fundraising and limited name recognition in a district with consistent Democratic margins above 40 points in recent cycles. Late developments such as the disqualification of additional independent candidates have further consolidated her position ahead of the November 3 general election. A major scandal or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district make such reversals improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIL-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
IL-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$61,640 Vol.
$61,640 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Patty Garcia (D)
96%
Lupe Castillo (R)
4%
$61,640 Vol.
$61,640 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Patty Garcia (D)
$45,541 Vol.
96%
Lupe Castillo (R)
$16,099 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th Congressional District, centered in southwest Chicago and surrounding suburbs, anchors trader consensus around Patty Garcia at 96%. As the unopposed Democratic nominee and former chief of staff to retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García, she benefits from established party infrastructure, substantial fundraising exceeding $350,000, and unified support following the incumbent's late 2025 withdrawal. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo and independent Chris Getty face structural barriers, including minimal reported fundraising and limited name recognition in a district with consistent Democratic margins above 40 points in recent cycles. Late developments such as the disqualification of additional independent candidates have further consolidated her position ahead of the November 3 general election. A major scandal or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district make such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$61,640Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th Congressional District, centered in southwest Chicago and surrounding suburbs, anchors trader consensus around Patty Garcia at 96%. As the unopposed Democratic nominee and former chief of staff to retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García, she benefits from established party infrastructure, substantial fundraising exceeding $350,000, and unified support following the incumbent's late 2025 withdrawal. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo and independent Chris Getty face structural barriers, including minimal reported fundraising and limited name recognition in a district with consistent Democratic margins above 40 points in recent cycles. Late developments such as the disqualification of additional independent candidates have further consolidated her position ahead of the November 3 general election. A major scandal or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district make such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$61,640Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...The solidly Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th Congressional District, centered in southwest Chicago and surrounding suburbs, anchors trader consensus around Patty Garcia at 96%. As the unopposed Democratic nominee and former chief of staff to retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García, she benefits from established party infrastructure, substantial fundraising exceeding $350,000, and unified support following the incumbent's late 2025 withdrawal. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo and independent Chris Getty face structural barriers, including minimal reported fundraising and limited name recognition in a district with consistent Democratic margins above 40 points in recent cycles. Late developments such as the disqualification of additional independent candidates have further consolidated her position ahead of the November 3 general election. A major scandal or unforeseen turnout shift could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district make such reversals improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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