Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Datafolha surveys from early September show her at 40% in the first round, well ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%, with her personal approval rising to 55%. Her support stems from a broad center-right coalition including PP, União Brasil, and allied parties, combined with steady gains in government evaluation metrics. Arruda’s numbers have declined sharply in the same period, while lower-polling contenders such as Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and Kiko Caputo remain marginal. With three weeks until voting, trader consensus reflects the consistent polling gap and limited time for shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCelina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.3%
Leandro Grass 2.8%
Elisson <1%
$16,738 Vol.
$16,738 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Celina Leão
83%
Arruda
8%
Leandro Grass
3%
Elisson
1%
Paula Belmonte
<1%
Professor Robson
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Kiko Caputo
<1%
Cappelli
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
<1%
Celina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.3%
Leandro Grass 2.8%
Elisson <1%
$16,738 Vol.
$16,738 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Celina Leão
$9,582 Vol.
83%
Arruda
$1,928 Vol.
8%
Leandro Grass
$1,573 Vol.
3%
Elisson
$543 Vol.
1%
Paula Belmonte
$531 Vol.
<1%
Professor Robson
$530 Vol.
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
$541 Vol.
<1%
Kiko Caputo
$490 Vol.
<1%
Cappelli
$531 Vol.
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$490 Vol.
<1%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Datafolha surveys from early September show her at 40% in the first round, well ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%, with her personal approval rising to 55%. Her support stems from a broad center-right coalition including PP, União Brasil, and allied parties, combined with steady gains in government evaluation metrics. Arruda’s numbers have declined sharply in the same period, while lower-polling contenders such as Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and Kiko Caputo remain marginal. With three weeks until voting, trader consensus reflects the consistent polling gap and limited time for shifts.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
Volume
$16,738Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Datafolha surveys from early September show her at 40% in the first round, well ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%, with her personal approval rising to 55%. Her support stems from a broad center-right coalition including PP, União Brasil, and allied parties, combined with steady gains in government evaluation metrics. Arruda’s numbers have declined sharply in the same period, while lower-polling contenders such as Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and Kiko Caputo remain marginal. With three weeks until voting, trader consensus reflects the consistent polling gap and limited time for shifts.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,738Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4 first-round vote. Datafolha surveys from early September show her at 40% in the first round, well ahead of José Roberto Arruda (PSD) at 17% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 16%, with her personal approval rising to 55%. Her support stems from a broad center-right coalition including PP, União Brasil, and allied parties, combined with steady gains in government evaluation metrics. Arruda’s numbers have declined sharply in the same period, while lower-polling contenders such as Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and Kiko Caputo remain marginal. With three weeks until voting, trader consensus reflects the consistent polling gap and limited time for shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti