Market-implied odds assign a 75.5% probability to a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflation above the 2% target alongside resilient growth. September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month to 3.7% year-over-year, with core at 2.6%, while PCE measures showed similar elevation; the labor market remains balanced with 4.2% unemployment and subdued payroll gains. The October 28 hold in the 3.75–4.00% range, accompanied by two dissents favoring a hike, reinforced expectations that incoming data will support further tightening before the dot-plot update. Key near-term releases, including the November employment report and inflation prints after the decision, will shape final positioning, though the current path aligns with recent policy communications emphasizing price stability.