The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only five tropical storms and zero hurricanes through early September amid continuing El Niño conditions, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against any Category 5 landfall in the United States before 2027. NOAA forecasts and current National Hurricane Center outlooks show suppressed activity, with formation unlikely in the next week and accumulated cyclone energy running 92% below the 1991–2020 average. Historical precedent reinforces this view, as only four Category 5 hurricanes have struck the contiguous U.S. since the 1930s. Remaining peak-season windows could still produce rapid intensification under favorable local conditions, though model consensus favors continued suppression through November.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
7% peluang
$141,594 Vol.
$141,594 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% peluang
$141,594 Vol.
$141,594 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only five tropical storms and zero hurricanes through early September amid continuing El Niño conditions, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against any Category 5 landfall in the United States before 2027. NOAA forecasts and current National Hurricane Center outlooks show suppressed activity, with formation unlikely in the next week and accumulated cyclone energy running 92% below the 1991–2020 average. Historical precedent reinforces this view, as only four Category 5 hurricanes have struck the contiguous U.S. since the 1930s. Remaining peak-season windows could still produce rapid intensification under favorable local conditions, though model consensus favors continued suppression through November.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$141,594Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only five tropical storms and zero hurricanes through early September amid continuing El Niño conditions, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against any Category 5 landfall in the United States before 2027. NOAA forecasts and current National Hurricane Center outlooks show suppressed activity, with formation unlikely in the next week and accumulated cyclone energy running 92% below the 1991–2020 average. Historical precedent reinforces this view, as only four Category 5 hurricanes have struck the contiguous U.S. since the 1930s. Remaining peak-season windows could still produce rapid intensification under favorable local conditions, though model consensus favors continued suppression through November.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$141,594Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only five tropical storms and zero hurricanes through early September amid continuing El Niño conditions, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against any Category 5 landfall in the United States before 2027. NOAA forecasts and current National Hurricane Center outlooks show suppressed activity, with formation unlikely in the next week and accumulated cyclone energy running 92% below the 1991–2020 average. Historical precedent reinforces this view, as only four Category 5 hurricanes have struck the contiguous U.S. since the 1930s. Remaining peak-season windows could still produce rapid intensification under favorable local conditions, though model consensus favors continued suppression through November.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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