**Trader consensus on “No” at 94.7% for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 rests on the well-documented global rarity of such events and the brief remaining window.** USGS records show only a handful of instrumentally confirmed M9+ quakes in the past century, with the most recent major event an M8.8 in Kamchatka in July 2025; 2026 activity has peaked at M7.8 in the Philippines and M7.7 in Indonesia. No subduction-zone monitoring networks report anomalous strain accumulation, foreshock sequences, or elevated seismicity that would indicate an imminent great rupture. Historical base rates imply roughly one to three M9+ events per century worldwide, making the probability of occurrence in the next few months low absent clear precursors. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include rapid escalation along the Nankai Trough, Cascadia, or another locked megathrust, though current data show no such signals.