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icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
Teknologi·AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
Teknologi·AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$216,662 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$216,662 Vol.

Polymarket

1560

$107,914 Vol.

29%

1580

$70,722 Vol.

24%

1600

$38,026 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 series currently lead most coding arenas and SWE-bench variants with ELO ratings often exceeding 1750 on agentic tasks and pass rates above 95% on Verified splits, driven by strong tool-use and multi-step reasoning capabilities. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra models and open-weight entries from DeepSeek, GLM, and Qwen trail closely on several leaderboards, reflecting intense competition in real-world software engineering benchmarks. Trader sentiment hinges on whether incremental gains from expected Q4 releases—such as next Claude or GPT variants—can push any model past the market's specific ELO threshold by year-end, amid typical timelines for frontier lab updates and benchmark saturation risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$216,662
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 2, 2026, 6:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 series currently lead most coding arenas and SWE-bench variants with ELO ratings often exceeding 1750 on agentic tasks and pass rates above 95% on Verified splits, driven by strong tool-use and multi-step reasoning capabilities. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra models and open-weight entries from DeepSeek, GLM, and Qwen trail closely on several leaderboards, reflecting intense competition in real-world software engineering benchmarks. Trader sentiment hinges on whether incremental gains from expected Q4 releases—such as next Claude or GPT variants—can push any model past the market's specific ELO threshold by year-end, amid typical timelines for frontier lab updates and benchmark saturation risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$216,662
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 2, 2026, 6:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 3 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "1560" di 29%, diikuti oleh "1580" di 24%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 29¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 29% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?" telah menghasilkan $216.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 2, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?," jelajahi 3 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?" adalah "1560" di 29%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 29% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "1580" di 24%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.