Recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1, GPT-6 Astra, and Gemini 3.8 Flash in early September 2026 have kept Anthropic models at the top of the Arena leaderboard near 1505-1507 Elo, with the top five clustered within roughly 10 points amid ongoing human-preference voting. Trader sentiment hinges on whether frontier labs can sustain the recent pace of gains—driven by post-training refinements and larger context windows—over the final 3.5 months of 2026, versus typical slowdowns as benchmarks approach saturation. Open-weight entries like Kimi K3 and Qwen3.8 Max trail by 20-30 points, widening the closed-model gap. Key catalysts include expected year-end updates from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta, plus any new Arena categories or AutoEval adjustments that could shift effective thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$183,205 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 1520
95%
↑ 1530
40%
↑ 1540
20%
↑ 1550
13%
↑ 1600
5%
↑ 1650
5%
↑ 1700
3%
$183,205 Vol.
↑ 1520
$32,642 Vol.
95%
↑ 1530
$12,673 Vol.
40%
↑ 1540
$5,135 Vol.
20%
↑ 1550
$52,494 Vol.
13%
↑ 1600
$25,370 Vol.
5%
↑ 1650
$9,196 Vol.
5%
↑ 1700
$9,036 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1, GPT-6 Astra, and Gemini 3.8 Flash in early September 2026 have kept Anthropic models at the top of the Arena leaderboard near 1505-1507 Elo, with the top five clustered within roughly 10 points amid ongoing human-preference voting. Trader sentiment hinges on whether frontier labs can sustain the recent pace of gains—driven by post-training refinements and larger context windows—over the final 3.5 months of 2026, versus typical slowdowns as benchmarks approach saturation. Open-weight entries like Kimi K3 and Qwen3.8 Max trail by 20-30 points, widening the closed-model gap. Key catalysts include expected year-end updates from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta, plus any new Arena categories or AutoEval adjustments that could shift effective thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$183,205Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1, GPT-6 Astra, and Gemini 3.8 Flash in early September 2026 have kept Anthropic models at the top of the Arena leaderboard near 1505-1507 Elo, with the top five clustered within roughly 10 points amid ongoing human-preference voting. Trader sentiment hinges on whether frontier labs can sustain the recent pace of gains—driven by post-training refinements and larger context windows—over the final 3.5 months of 2026, versus typical slowdowns as benchmarks approach saturation. Open-weight entries like Kimi K3 and Qwen3.8 Max trail by 20-30 points, widening the closed-model gap. Key catalysts include expected year-end updates from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta, plus any new Arena categories or AutoEval adjustments that could shift effective thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$183,205Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1, GPT-6 Astra, and Gemini 3.8 Flash in early September 2026 have kept Anthropic models at the top of the Arena leaderboard near 1505-1507 Elo, with the top five clustered within roughly 10 points amid ongoing human-preference voting. Trader sentiment hinges on whether frontier labs can sustain the recent pace of gains—driven by post-training refinements and larger context windows—over the final 3.5 months of 2026, versus typical slowdowns as benchmarks approach saturation. Open-weight entries like Kimi K3 and Qwen3.8 Max trail by 20-30 points, widening the closed-model gap. Key catalysts include expected year-end updates from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta, plus any new Arena categories or AutoEval adjustments that could shift effective thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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