Meta’s Watermelon, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after April’s Muse Spark (Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026 while Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang reported July parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks via roughly 10x the compute. August reporting highlighted an October target tied to the consumer Hatch AI agent platform and broader agentic capabilities, following the September 2 Muse Spark 1.3 roadmap update that referenced “bigger models.” Traders are weighing the aggressive scaling investment against historical slippage risks in frontier training runs, OpenAI and Anthropic iteration pace, and the lack of third-party verification or public release confirmation. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or delays signaled in earnings or internal updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$12,318 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
74%
November 30
93%
$12,318 Vol.
September 30
$3,394 Vol.
5%
October 31
$6,384 Vol.
74%
November 30
$2,540 Vol.
93%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after April’s Muse Spark (Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026 while Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang reported July parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks via roughly 10x the compute. August reporting highlighted an October target tied to the consumer Hatch AI agent platform and broader agentic capabilities, following the September 2 Muse Spark 1.3 roadmap update that referenced “bigger models.” Traders are weighing the aggressive scaling investment against historical slippage risks in frontier training runs, OpenAI and Anthropic iteration pace, and the lack of third-party verification or public release confirmation. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or delays signaled in earnings or internal updates.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$12,318Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after April’s Muse Spark (Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026 while Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang reported July parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks via roughly 10x the compute. August reporting highlighted an October target tied to the consumer Hatch AI agent platform and broader agentic capabilities, following the September 2 Muse Spark 1.3 roadmap update that referenced “bigger models.” Traders are weighing the aggressive scaling investment against historical slippage risks in frontier training runs, OpenAI and Anthropic iteration pace, and the lack of third-party verification or public release confirmation. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or delays signaled in earnings or internal updates.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,318Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Watermelon, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after April’s Muse Spark (Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026 while Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang reported July parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks via roughly 10x the compute. August reporting highlighted an October target tied to the consumer Hatch AI agent platform and broader agentic capabilities, following the September 2 Muse Spark 1.3 roadmap update that referenced “bigger models.” Traders are weighing the aggressive scaling investment against historical slippage risks in frontier training runs, OpenAI and Anthropic iteration pace, and the lack of third-party verification or public release confirmation. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or delays signaled in earnings or internal updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan