Alibaba’s commanding lead in implied probability reflects its unmatched scale in open-weight distribution and enterprise adoption, with the Qwen family surpassing three billion downloads in six months and maintaining the broadest model lineup across sizes, modalities, and agentic use cases. Recent releases, including Qwen-Image-2.1 and the open-sourced Damo Radar medical imaging model that outperformed most radiologists on CT scans, reinforce its momentum heading into October. Smaller specialists such as Moonshot (Kimi K3) and DeepSeek (V4 series) post competitive benchmark results in long-context agents and cost-efficient reasoning, yet trail significantly in global developer uptake and infrastructure reach. Traders appear to weigh Alibaba’s cloud integration, regulatory positioning, and sustained release cadence most heavily for the end-of-October horizon.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAlibaba 65%
Moonshot 18%
Z.ai 6.5%
ByteDance 2.1%
$102,204 Vol.
$102,204 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba
65%
Moonshot
18%
Z.ai
7%
ByteDance
2%
DeepSeek
2%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
MiniMax
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba 65%
Moonshot 18%
Z.ai 6.5%
ByteDance 2.1%
$102,204 Vol.
$102,204 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba
$31,734 Vol.
65%
Moonshot
$19,570 Vol.
18%
Z.ai
$10,491 Vol.
7%
ByteDance
$6,558 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$6,214 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$5,552 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$6,235 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$5,312 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$5,574 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,093 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$3,871 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s commanding lead in implied probability reflects its unmatched scale in open-weight distribution and enterprise adoption, with the Qwen family surpassing three billion downloads in six months and maintaining the broadest model lineup across sizes, modalities, and agentic use cases. Recent releases, including Qwen-Image-2.1 and the open-sourced Damo Radar medical imaging model that outperformed most radiologists on CT scans, reinforce its momentum heading into October. Smaller specialists such as Moonshot (Kimi K3) and DeepSeek (V4 series) post competitive benchmark results in long-context agents and cost-efficient reasoning, yet trail significantly in global developer uptake and infrastructure reach. Traders appear to weigh Alibaba’s cloud integration, regulatory positioning, and sustained release cadence most heavily for the end-of-October horizon.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$102,204Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s commanding lead in implied probability reflects its unmatched scale in open-weight distribution and enterprise adoption, with the Qwen family surpassing three billion downloads in six months and maintaining the broadest model lineup across sizes, modalities, and agentic use cases. Recent releases, including Qwen-Image-2.1 and the open-sourced Damo Radar medical imaging model that outperformed most radiologists on CT scans, reinforce its momentum heading into October. Smaller specialists such as Moonshot (Kimi K3) and DeepSeek (V4 series) post competitive benchmark results in long-context agents and cost-efficient reasoning, yet trail significantly in global developer uptake and infrastructure reach. Traders appear to weigh Alibaba’s cloud integration, regulatory positioning, and sustained release cadence most heavily for the end-of-October horizon.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$102,204Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba’s commanding lead in implied probability reflects its unmatched scale in open-weight distribution and enterprise adoption, with the Qwen family surpassing three billion downloads in six months and maintaining the broadest model lineup across sizes, modalities, and agentic use cases. Recent releases, including Qwen-Image-2.1 and the open-sourced Damo Radar medical imaging model that outperformed most radiologists on CT scans, reinforce its momentum heading into October. Smaller specialists such as Moonshot (Kimi K3) and DeepSeek (V4 series) post competitive benchmark results in long-context agents and cost-efficient reasoning, yet trail significantly in global developer uptake and infrastructure reach. Traders appear to weigh Alibaba’s cloud integration, regulatory positioning, and sustained release cadence most heavily for the end-of-October horizon.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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