Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 following the 2025 redistricting, with Republican candidates consistently securing large margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican across outlets, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 94.5 percent tracks these structural advantages and primary results. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or major national political shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTX-04 House Election Winner
TX-04 House Election Winner
$39,977 Vol.
$39,977 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Pat Fallon (R)
95%
Jason Pearce (D)
6%
$39,977 Vol.
$39,977 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Pat Fallon (R)
$21,766 Vol.
95%
Jason Pearce (D)
$18,211 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 following the 2025 redistricting, with Republican candidates consistently securing large margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican across outlets, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 94.5 percent tracks these structural advantages and primary results. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or major national political shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$39,977Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 following the 2025 redistricting, with Republican candidates consistently securing large margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican across outlets, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 94.5 percent tracks these structural advantages and primary results. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or major national political shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,977Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+12 following the 2025 redistricting, with Republican candidates consistently securing large margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured renomination with over 80 percent in the March 2026 Republican primary and faces Democratic nominee Jason Pearce in the November general election. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican across outlets, reflecting limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling. Trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 94.5 percent tracks these structural advantages and primary results. A late-breaking scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or major national political shift could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such changes would require substantial movement to alter the outcome.
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