Traders assign a 97% implied probability against Donald Trump’s removal via the 25th Amendment before 2027 due to the amendment’s demanding procedural requirements and the absence of any credible signs that the vice president or cabinet would initiate invocation. The process demands a formal declaration of incapacity followed by congressional affirmation, a threshold rarely met even in periods of divided government and especially difficult under unified Republican leadership. No recent cabinet statements, medical disclosures, or legislative actions have signaled incapacity concerns, and historical precedent shows such removals as exceptional events. Remaining scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden documented health crisis or unprecedented internal administration revolt, though neither has materialized in verifiable developments through September 2026.