Israeli aviation authorities manage the Tel Aviv Flight Information Region primarily through security assessments tied to missile and drone threats from Iran and proxies such as Hezbollah. A February 2026 escalation involving U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered repeated retaliatory salvos, temporary full closures, and NOTAM restrictions, followed by an April ceasefire that allowed partial reopenings. Renewed exchanges in June prompted further suspensions, while an EASA regional information note valid through September 30, 2026, continues to advise operators to factor in ballistic and drone risks when routing to Ben Gurion Airport. As of mid-September, civilian operations remain open under limitations, with select foreign carriers resuming limited schedules and others citing persistent operational concerns. Any fresh escalation within the resolution window could prompt a broad commercial suspension consistent with prior wartime protocols, as confirmed by Israeli Civil Aviation Authority announcements or equivalent credible reporting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$45,825 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
3%
October 31
12%
December 31
21%
$45,825 Vol.
September 30
$14,763 Vol.
3%
October 31
$15,552 Vol.
12%
December 31
$15,510 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli aviation authorities manage the Tel Aviv Flight Information Region primarily through security assessments tied to missile and drone threats from Iran and proxies such as Hezbollah. A February 2026 escalation involving U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered repeated retaliatory salvos, temporary full closures, and NOTAM restrictions, followed by an April ceasefire that allowed partial reopenings. Renewed exchanges in June prompted further suspensions, while an EASA regional information note valid through September 30, 2026, continues to advise operators to factor in ballistic and drone risks when routing to Ben Gurion Airport. As of mid-September, civilian operations remain open under limitations, with select foreign carriers resuming limited schedules and others citing persistent operational concerns. Any fresh escalation within the resolution window could prompt a broad commercial suspension consistent with prior wartime protocols, as confirmed by Israeli Civil Aviation Authority announcements or equivalent credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 15, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$45,825Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli aviation authorities manage the Tel Aviv Flight Information Region primarily through security assessments tied to missile and drone threats from Iran and proxies such as Hezbollah. A February 2026 escalation involving U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered repeated retaliatory salvos, temporary full closures, and NOTAM restrictions, followed by an April ceasefire that allowed partial reopenings. Renewed exchanges in June prompted further suspensions, while an EASA regional information note valid through September 30, 2026, continues to advise operators to factor in ballistic and drone risks when routing to Ben Gurion Airport. As of mid-September, civilian operations remain open under limitations, with select foreign carriers resuming limited schedules and others citing persistent operational concerns. Any fresh escalation within the resolution window could prompt a broad commercial suspension consistent with prior wartime protocols, as confirmed by Israeli Civil Aviation Authority announcements or equivalent credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$45,825Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli aviation authorities manage the Tel Aviv Flight Information Region primarily through security assessments tied to missile and drone threats from Iran and proxies such as Hezbollah. A February 2026 escalation involving U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered repeated retaliatory salvos, temporary full closures, and NOTAM restrictions, followed by an April ceasefire that allowed partial reopenings. Renewed exchanges in June prompted further suspensions, while an EASA regional information note valid through September 30, 2026, continues to advise operators to factor in ballistic and drone risks when routing to Ben Gurion Airport. As of mid-September, civilian operations remain open under limitations, with select foreign carriers resuming limited schedules and others citing persistent operational concerns. Any fresh escalation within the resolution window could prompt a broad commercial suspension consistent with prior wartime protocols, as confirmed by Israeli Civil Aviation Authority announcements or equivalent credible reporting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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