Diplomatic protocol and historical precedent in US-China summits strongly favor formal handshakes or nods over any physical gestures like kissing, anchoring trader consensus around a near-certain outcome. No official statements, scheduling announcements, or bilateral developments in recent months have signaled any departure from standard state-visit norms. With probabilities this elevated, markets reflect the structural barriers of established etiquette, security arrangements, and public optics that make such an event improbable. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited to unverifiable footage disputes, technical resolution criteria, or highly unusual private arrangements, though none have materialized to date.