Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against President Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of voluntary presidential exits and the lack of acute triggers such as formal impeachment proceedings, verified health incapacity, or party pressure to step aside midway through the second term. Recent staff departures and midterm positioning have not altered this baseline, while public statements from Trump emphasize completing the current mandate and transitioning power in 2029. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets aligns with established patterns where incumbents serve full terms absent extraordinary events. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical developments, major scandals prompting resignation to preempt removal, or unforeseen personal circumstances.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui3% peluang
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% peluang
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against President Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of voluntary presidential exits and the lack of acute triggers such as formal impeachment proceedings, verified health incapacity, or party pressure to step aside midway through the second term. Recent staff departures and midterm positioning have not altered this baseline, while public statements from Trump emphasize completing the current mandate and transitioning power in 2029. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets aligns with established patterns where incumbents serve full terms absent extraordinary events. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical developments, major scandals prompting resignation to preempt removal, or unforeseen personal circumstances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
Volume
$23,487Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against President Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of voluntary presidential exits and the lack of acute triggers such as formal impeachment proceedings, verified health incapacity, or party pressure to step aside midway through the second term. Recent staff departures and midterm positioning have not altered this baseline, while public statements from Trump emphasize completing the current mandate and transitioning power in 2029. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets aligns with established patterns where incumbents serve full terms absent extraordinary events. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical developments, major scandals prompting resignation to preempt removal, or unforeseen personal circumstances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$23,487Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against President Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of voluntary presidential exits and the lack of acute triggers such as formal impeachment proceedings, verified health incapacity, or party pressure to step aside midway through the second term. Recent staff departures and midterm positioning have not altered this baseline, while public statements from Trump emphasize completing the current mandate and transitioning power in 2029. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets aligns with established patterns where incumbents serve full terms absent extraordinary events. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical developments, major scandals prompting resignation to preempt removal, or unforeseen personal circumstances.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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