Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the lead at roughly 29 percent, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 23-24 percent, with the remaining parties trailing further behind. This positioning stems from sustained PQ strength among francophone voters and consistent gains through by-elections since 2022, reinforced by its platform emphasizing sovereignty and immigration. The CAQ, under new Premier Christine Fréchette, has narrowed the gap modestly during the current campaign through emphasis on economic management and the U.S. trade environment, yet projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ still assign the PQ an 80-89 percent chance of securing the most seats on October 5. The Liberals have lost ground since their leadership transition, while smaller parties remain fragmented. These trends align with the market's implied probabilities favoring a PQ plurality, most likely resulting in a minority government.