**McConnell’s prolonged recovery from a June 2026 fall that left him unconscious, followed by pneumonia treatment and intensive physical therapy, remains the central driver of the 65.5% Yes probability.** The 84-year-old Kentucky Republican has missed more than 60 Senate roll-call votes since mid-June while hospitalized and then in rehabilitation, with his office confirming continued home-based therapy after an August 6 discharge. Senate colleagues including Rep. James Comer and Sen. Rand Paul have cited staff communications indicating a goal of returning when the chamber reconvenes September 14, potentially for votes on the expiring farm bill and other measures before September 30. The absence of an official schedule or medical clearance from McConnell’s office introduces uncertainty around his mobility and stamina, particularly given his history of polio-related issues, producing the current trader assessment of a modest likelihood he casts at least one floor vote in the remaining session window.