**Traders assign a 93% probability that the deficit will not be reduced before 2027 because federal shortfalls have remained elevated through fiscal year 2026.** CBO projections and Treasury data show the FY2026 gap at approximately $1.9 trillion (5.8% of GDP), comparable to or exceeding FY2025 levels after accounting for timing shifts, with cumulative borrowing near $2 trillion through August. Key drivers include sustained entitlement and interest costs, defense funding priorities, and net effects from the 2025 reconciliation legislation alongside tariff adjustments. Administration efforts at non-defense discretionary restraint and rescissions have produced targeted savings, yet these have not offset broader outlay growth or produced a year-over-year decline. With midterms and debt-limit considerations ahead, the consensus reflects limited near-term scope for the scale of fiscal consolidation needed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.**Traders assign a 93% probability that the deficit will not be reduced before 2027 because federal shortfalls have remained elevated through fiscal year 2026.** CBO projections and Treasury data show the FY2026 gap at approximately $1.9 trillion (5.8% of GDP), comparable to or exceeding FY2025 levels after accounting for timing shifts, with cumulative borrowing near $2 trillion through August. Key drivers include sustained entitlement and interest costs, defense funding priorities, and net effects from the 2025 reconciliation legislation alongside tariff adjustments. Administration efforts at non-defense discretionary restraint and rescissions have produced targeted savings, yet these have not offset broader outlay growth or produced a year-over-year decline. With midterms and debt-limit considerations ahead, the consensus reflects limited near-term scope for the scale of fiscal consolidation needed.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$3,076Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.**Traders assign a 93% probability that the deficit will not be reduced before 2027 because federal shortfalls have remained elevated through fiscal year 2026.** CBO projections and Treasury data show the FY2026 gap at approximately $1.9 trillion (5.8% of GDP), comparable to or exceeding FY2025 levels after accounting for timing shifts, with cumulative borrowing near $2 trillion through August. Key drivers include sustained entitlement and interest costs, defense funding priorities, and net effects from the 2025 reconciliation legislation alongside tariff adjustments. Administration efforts at non-defense discretionary restraint and rescissions have produced targeted savings, yet these have not offset broader outlay growth or produced a year-over-year decline. With midterms and debt-limit considerations ahead, the consensus reflects limited near-term scope for the scale of fiscal consolidation needed.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volume
$3,076Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 93% probability that the deficit will not be reduced before 2027 because federal shortfalls have remained elevated through fiscal year 2026.** CBO projections and Treasury data show the FY2026 gap at approximately $1.9 trillion (5.8% of GDP), comparable to or exceeding FY2025 levels after accounting for timing shifts, with cumulative borrowing near $2 trillion through August. Key drivers include sustained entitlement and interest costs, defense funding priorities, and net effects from the 2025 reconciliation legislation alongside tariff adjustments. Administration efforts at non-defense discretionary restraint and rescissions have produced targeted savings, yet these have not offset broader outlay growth or produced a year-over-year decline. With midterms and debt-limit considerations ahead, the consensus reflects limited near-term scope for the scale of fiscal consolidation needed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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