Republican congressional majorities have limited prospects for successful impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation, as both processes require supermajorities that current partisan alignments make improbable. Official medical assessments continue to describe President Trump as fit despite public observations of fatigue and age-related commentary around his 80th birthday, with no active Cabinet or bipartisan congressional actions advancing succession. Midterm elections in November 2026 represent the nearest scheduled test of legislative control, yet traders price early departure as unlikely absent unforeseen incapacity or sudden cross-party defections. Historical patterns of incumbent service through non-acute periods further align with the 94.5% implied probability on remaining in office through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
6% chance
$11,451,028 Vol.
$11,451,028 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
6% chance
$11,451,028 Vol.
$11,451,028 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican congressional majorities have limited prospects for successful impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation, as both processes require supermajorities that current partisan alignments make improbable. Official medical assessments continue to describe President Trump as fit despite public observations of fatigue and age-related commentary around his 80th birthday, with no active Cabinet or bipartisan congressional actions advancing succession. Midterm elections in November 2026 represent the nearest scheduled test of legislative control, yet traders price early departure as unlikely absent unforeseen incapacity or sudden cross-party defections. Historical patterns of incumbent service through non-acute periods further align with the 94.5% implied probability on remaining in office through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,451,028Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican congressional majorities have limited prospects for successful impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation, as both processes require supermajorities that current partisan alignments make improbable. Official medical assessments continue to describe President Trump as fit despite public observations of fatigue and age-related commentary around his 80th birthday, with no active Cabinet or bipartisan congressional actions advancing succession. Midterm elections in November 2026 represent the nearest scheduled test of legislative control, yet traders price early departure as unlikely absent unforeseen incapacity or sudden cross-party defections. Historical patterns of incumbent service through non-acute periods further align with the 94.5% implied probability on remaining in office through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,451,030Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Republican congressional majorities have limited prospects for successful impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation, as both processes require supermajorities that current partisan alignments make improbable. Official medical assessments continue to describe President Trump as fit despite public observations of fatigue and age-related commentary around his 80th birthday, with no active Cabinet or bipartisan congressional actions advancing succession. Midterm elections in November 2026 represent the nearest scheduled test of legislative control, yet traders price early departure as unlikely absent unforeseen incapacity or sudden cross-party defections. Historical patterns of incumbent service through non-acute periods further align with the 94.5% implied probability on remaining in office through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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