Israel maintains a fragile October 2025 ceasefire in Gaza while expanding its controlled territory beyond the original Yellow Line demarcation to roughly 60-70 percent through barriers, outposts, and incremental advances, accompanied by frequent targeted strikes, raids, and infrastructure destruction aimed at preventing Hamas rearmament. Negotiations on the second phase remain stalled over Hamas disarmament and IDF withdrawal timelines, with Israeli leaders stating troops will stay until heavy weapons are surrendered and threats neutralized. Recent operations, including a September 1 raid in Gaza City capturing a senior Hamas security official and associated strikes, reflect ongoing attrition tactics rather than a return to large-scale ground maneuvers. Upcoming Israeli elections and U.S.-brokered diplomatic efforts could influence escalation risks or de-escalation incentives before any potential market resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$757,092 Vol.
30 oct. 2025
31 décembre
12%
$757,092 Vol.
31 décembre
$107,460 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel maintains a fragile October 2025 ceasefire in Gaza while expanding its controlled territory beyond the original Yellow Line demarcation to roughly 60-70 percent through barriers, outposts, and incremental advances, accompanied by frequent targeted strikes, raids, and infrastructure destruction aimed at preventing Hamas rearmament. Negotiations on the second phase remain stalled over Hamas disarmament and IDF withdrawal timelines, with Israeli leaders stating troops will stay until heavy weapons are surrendered and threats neutralized. Recent operations, including a September 1 raid in Gaza City capturing a senior Hamas security official and associated strikes, reflect ongoing attrition tactics rather than a return to large-scale ground maneuvers. Upcoming Israeli elections and U.S.-brokered diplomatic efforts could influence escalation risks or de-escalation incentives before any potential market resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$757,092Date de fin
31 déc. 2025Marché ouvert
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel maintains a fragile October 2025 ceasefire in Gaza while expanding its controlled territory beyond the original Yellow Line demarcation to roughly 60-70 percent through barriers, outposts, and incremental advances, accompanied by frequent targeted strikes, raids, and infrastructure destruction aimed at preventing Hamas rearmament. Negotiations on the second phase remain stalled over Hamas disarmament and IDF withdrawal timelines, with Israeli leaders stating troops will stay until heavy weapons are surrendered and threats neutralized. Recent operations, including a September 1 raid in Gaza City capturing a senior Hamas security official and associated strikes, reflect ongoing attrition tactics rather than a return to large-scale ground maneuvers. Upcoming Israeli elections and U.S.-brokered diplomatic efforts could influence escalation risks or de-escalation incentives before any potential market resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$757,092Date de fin
31 déc. 2025Marché ouvert
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Israel maintains a fragile October 2025 ceasefire in Gaza while expanding its controlled territory beyond the original Yellow Line demarcation to roughly 60-70 percent through barriers, outposts, and incremental advances, accompanied by frequent targeted strikes, raids, and infrastructure destruction aimed at preventing Hamas rearmament. Negotiations on the second phase remain stalled over Hamas disarmament and IDF withdrawal timelines, with Israeli leaders stating troops will stay until heavy weapons are surrendered and threats neutralized. Recent operations, including a September 1 raid in Gaza City capturing a senior Hamas security official and associated strikes, reflect ongoing attrition tactics rather than a return to large-scale ground maneuvers. Upcoming Israeli elections and U.S.-brokered diplomatic efforts could influence escalation risks or de-escalation incentives before any potential market resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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